Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:15
Full timeLe Havre 0:1 AS Monaco
AS Monaco were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Le Havre's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.60).
Goals
- 14' Eric Dier AS Monaco · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Le Havre
- 31%
- Draw
- 32%
- AS Monaco
- 37% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Le Havre produced 0.60 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 15
- On target
- 4
- 7
- Inside the box
- 9
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.43
- 1.22
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for AS Monaco.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Le Havre
- AS Monaco
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco not to score | 5.50 | +33.0% | Lost |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +28.9% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +26.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +25.8% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +20.7% | Won |
| Le Havre to win | 3.60 | +13.1% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.38 | +2.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 31.4% | 26.4% | +5.0 pp | 3.18 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 23.8% | +7.8 pp | 3.17 |
| AS Monaco | 37.1% | 49.8% | −12.8 pp | 2.70 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre to score | 72.8% | 70.9% | +1.9 pp | 1.37 |
| Le Havre not to score | 27.2% | 29.1% | −1.9 pp | 3.67 |
| AS Monaco to score | 75.8% | 82.8% | −7.0 pp | 1.32 |
| AS Monaco not to score | 24.2% | 17.2% | +7.0 pp | 4.14 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 60.8% | −3.7 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 39.2% | +3.7 pp | 2.33 |
| Le Havre 2+ goals | 34.3% | 37.5% | −3.2 pp | 2.91 |
| Le Havre at most 1 goal | 65.7% | 62.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.52 |
| AS Monaco 2+ goals | 38.6% | 55.7% | −17.1 pp | 2.59 |
| AS Monaco at most 1 goal | 61.4% | 44.3% | +17.1 pp | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | 81.1% | −5.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 18.9% | +5.2 pp | 4.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 60.2% | −13.1 pp | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 39.8% | +13.1 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Le Havre sample
- 20 matches
- AS Monaco sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.