Nice 0:0 Lorient: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Nice Home 1.05 xG · 14 shots

Lorient Away 1.28 xG · 10 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

Nice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Nice: 38%
Draw: 33% What happened
Lorient: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Nice 1.25 1.05 -0.20

Lorient 1.09 1.28 +0.19

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Nice Lorient

Shots: 14; 10
On target: 1; 2
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.93; 1.02
Set-piece xG: 0.16; 0.24
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for Nice and 1.25 for Lorient.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.35 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Nice
Lorient
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nice

1.30 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 2.11 created, 1.76 conceded against Le Havre
D 0.19 created, 0.54 conceded against Lille
D 1.46 created, 2.32 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
D 1.07 created, 1.53 conceded against RC Lens
L 1.33 created, 0.84 conceded against Auxerre
D 1.64 created, 0.85 conceded against Metz

Lorient

1.62 xG created 1.42 xGA

L 1.87 created, 1.16 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais
W 1.33 created, 1.65 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
L 2.28 created, 1.34 conceded against RC Strasbourg
D 0.96 created, 2.42 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 2.00 created, 0.67 conceded against Metz
L 1.30 created, 1.25 conceded against Le Havre

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Nice: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Nice against Lorient before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+15.8%	Won
Draw	3.50	+14.9%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+11.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Nice	37.8%	45.1%	−7.3 pp	2.65
Draw	32.8%	27.1%	+5.8 pp	3.05
Lorient	29.4%	27.9%	+1.5 pp	3.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.5%	55.7%	−2.3 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.5%	44.3%	+2.3 pp	2.15
Over 1.5 goals	72.3%	76.2%	−3.9 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.7%	23.8%	+3.9 pp	3.60
Over 2.5 goals	42.1%	52.6%	−10.5 pp	2.37
Under 2.5 goals	57.9%	47.4%	+10.5 pp	1.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Nice sample: 20 matches
Lorient sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.