Ligue 1 expected points table 2026/2027
Every Ligue 1 club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Paris FC lead on expected points with 10.86 over 5 matches with xG. Stade Rennais sit 10 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 5 against 15 on expected points. RC Lens sit 9 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 15 against 6 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC PFC | 5 | 11 | 10.86 | +0.14 | 3 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain PSG | 5 | 8 | 10.32 | −2.32 | 6 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Olympique Lyonnais LYO | 5 | 11 | 9.04 | +1.96 | 2 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Stade Brestois BRE | 5 | 5 | 8.92 | −3.92 | 11 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Toulouse TFC | 5 | 5 | 8.68 | −3.68 | 13 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | RC Lens RCL | 5 | 4 | 7.47 | −3.47 | 15 | 9 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Angers ANG | 5 | 7 | 7.43 | −0.43 | 7 | Same place as on expected points |
| 8 | AS Monaco ASM | 5 | 13 | 7.10 | +5.90 | 1 | 7 places above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Le Mans LMA | 5 | 6 | 6.37 | −0.37 | 9 | Same place as on expected points |
| 10 | Lille LIL | 5 | 10 | 6.18 | +3.82 | 4 | 6 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Lorient LOR | 5 | 5 | 6.06 | −1.06 | 12 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 12 | Le Havre HAC | 5 | 2 | 6.01 | −4.01 | 18 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Auxerre AUX | 5 | 6 | 5.91 | +0.09 | 10 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 14 | Olympique de Marseille MAR | 5 | 3 | 5.43 | −2.43 | 17 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 15 | Stade Rennais REN | 5 | 10 | 5.41 | +4.59 | 5 | 10 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Troyes TRO | 5 | 4 | 4.82 | −0.82 | 16 | Same place as on expected points |
| 17 | Nice NIC | 5 | 5 | 4.71 | +0.29 | 14 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | RC Strasbourg RCS | 5 | 7 | 4.18 | +2.82 | 8 | 10 places above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.