Budapest Honvéd FC 1:0 Zalaegerszegi TE: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Budapest Honvéd FC Home 1.02 xG

Zalaegerszegi TE Away 0.61 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Budapest Honvéd FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Zalaegerszegi TE's attack: 0.61 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.82). Budapest Honvéd FC produced 1.02 xG against 1.54 projected (−0.52).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Budapest Honvéd FC: 38% What happened
Draw: 29%
Zalaegerszegi TE: 33%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Budapest Honvéd FC 1.54 1.02 -0.52

Zalaegerszegi TE 1.43 0.61 -0.82

Zalaegerszegi TE produced 0.82 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Budapest Honvéd FC Zalaegerszegi TE

Shots: 18; 9
On target: 4; 0
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Budapest Honvéd FC

1.80 xG created 3.28 xGA

L 1.80 created, 3.28 conceded against Vasas

Zalaegerszegi TE

1.12 xG created 1.69 xGA

W 1.79 created, 0.59 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
L 1.04 created, 1.37 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
L 1.17 created, 2.03 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.93 created, 1.70 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 0.42 created, 2.36 conceded against Vasas
L 1.36 created, 2.11 conceded against Ferencváros TC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Budapest Honvéd FC against Zalaegerszegi TE before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Zalaegerszegi TE 2+ goals	2.50	+7.1%	Lost
Zalaegerszegi TE to win	3.20	+5.5%	Lost
Zalaegerszegi TE to score	1.33	+4.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+2.7%	Lost
Budapest Honvéd FC at most 1 goal	1.91	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Budapest Honvéd FC	38.4%	46.3%	−8.0 pp	2.61
Draw	28.7%	26.0%	+2.7 pp	3.49
Zalaegerszegi TE	33.0%	27.6%	+5.3 pp	3.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Budapest Honvéd FC to score	81.2%	81.1%	+0.1 pp	1.23
Budapest Honvéd FC not to score	18.8%	18.9%	−0.1 pp	5.31
Zalaegerszegi TE to score	78.5%	70.9%	+7.6 pp	1.27
Zalaegerszegi TE not to score	21.5%	29.1%	−7.6 pp	4.66
Both teams to score	65.4%	58.9%	+6.5 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.6%	41.1%	−6.5 pp	2.89
Budapest Honvéd FC 2+ goals	47.0%	51.5%	−4.5 pp	2.13
Budapest Honvéd FC at most 1 goal	53.0%	48.5%	+4.5 pp	1.89
Zalaegerszegi TE 2+ goals	42.8%	37.5%	+5.3 pp	2.33
Zalaegerszegi TE at most 1 goal	57.2%	62.5%	−5.3 pp	1.75
Over 1.5 goals	83.5%	79.4%	+4.1 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.5%	20.6%	−4.1 pp	6.06
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	57.7%	+1.0 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	42.3%	−1.0 pp	2.42

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Budapest Honvéd FC sample: 1 match
Zalaegerszegi TE sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Budapest Honvéd FC has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.