Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeETO FC Győr 3:0 Zalaegerszegi TE
ETO FC Győr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0.
The model against the result
- ETO FC Győr
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Zalaegerszegi TE
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.98 xG created 1.77 xGA
- W 1.93 created, 1.73 conceded against Ferencváros TC
- D 0.99 created, 1.05 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- W 2.95 created, 0.42 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
- W 2.19 created, 1.38 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- W 2.37 created, 1.87 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 1.43 created, 4.16 conceded against Debreceni VSC
1.12 xG created 1.69 xGA
- W 1.79 created, 0.59 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
- L 1.04 created, 1.37 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- L 1.17 created, 2.03 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- L 0.93 created, 1.70 conceded against Ferencváros TC
- L 0.42 created, 2.36 conceded against Vasas
- L 1.36 created, 2.11 conceded against Ferencváros TC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zalaegerszegi TE to win | 5.25 | +41.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +33.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +4.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +3.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETO FC Győr | 44.9% | 62.8% | −17.9 pp | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 19.6% | +8.6 pp | 3.55 |
| Zalaegerszegi TE | 27.0% | 17.7% | +9.3 pp | 3.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | 57.7% | +6.6 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.7% | 42.3% | −6.6 pp | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | 82.8% | +0.5 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 17.2% | −0.5 pp | 5.97 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 62.5% | −4.2 pp | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 37.5% | +4.2 pp | 2.40 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ETO FC Győr sample
- 20 matches
- Zalaegerszegi TE sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.