Kisvárda FC 0:0 Debreceni VSC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Kisvárda FC Home

Debreceni VSC Away

Debreceni VSC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 0–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kisvárda FC: 24%
Draw: 27% What happened
Debreceni VSC: 49%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kisvárda FC

1.07 xG created 1.96 xGA

L 0.76 created, 1.10 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
L 0.32 created, 0.52 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
L 1.38 created, 2.19 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.54 created, 2.17 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.65 created, 2.89 conceded against Újpest
L 0.79 created, 2.86 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus

Debreceni VSC

2.09 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 1.55 created, 0.68 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
D 1.05 created, 0.99 conceded against ETO FC Győr
L 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against Újpest
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Újpest
D 4.16 created, 1.43 conceded against ETO FC Győr

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kisvárda FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kisvárda FC against Debreceni VSC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+8.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+7.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+4.8%	Lost
Debreceni VSC to win	2.05	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kisvárda FC	24.2%	28.7%	−4.4 pp	4.13
Draw	26.5%	25.9%	+0.7 pp	3.77
Debreceni VSC	49.2%	45.5%	+3.8 pp	2.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.5%	57.7%	+8.8 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.5%	42.3%	−8.8 pp	2.99
Over 1.5 goals	85.7%	76.6%	+9.1 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.3%	23.4%	−9.1 pp	7.01
Over 2.5 goals	62.6%	54.6%	+8.0 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.4%	45.4%	−8.0 pp	2.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kisvárda FC sample: 20 matches
Debreceni VSC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.