Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeMTK Budapest 2:1 Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Nyiregyháza Spartacus were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. MTK Budapest won 2–1. The biggest difference was MTK Budapest's attack: 1.40 xG against 1.66 projected (−0.26). Nyiregyháza Spartacus produced 2.09 xG against 1.83 projected (+0.26).
The model against the result
- MTK Budapest
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 41%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
MTK Budapest produced 0.26 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 17
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
Recent form
2.13 xG created 1.66 xGA
- W 2.20 created, 0.70 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- D 1.60 created, 0.76 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
- D 1.83 created, 1.81 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- D 2.98 created, 2.09 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- L 1.70 created, 3.63 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- D 2.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Újpest
2.13 xG created 1.55 xGA
- L 1.44 created, 2.14 conceded against Újpest
- W 1.37 created, 1.04 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- D 1.81 created, 1.83 conceded against MTK Budapest
- D 3.40 created, 1.14 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
- L 1.87 created, 2.37 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 2.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Kisvárda FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +16.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +15.1% | Won |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win | 2.75 | +12.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +7.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 33.1% | 41.2% | −8.1 pp | 3.02 |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.1% | +0.8 pp | 3.86 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus | 41.0% | 33.7% | +7.3 pp | 2.44 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 73.2% | 58.9% | +14.4 pp | 1.37 |
| Both teams not to score | 26.8% | 41.1% | −14.4 pp | 3.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.6% | 78.3% | +11.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.4% | 21.7% | −11.3 pp | 9.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 56.3% | +13.7 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.0% | 43.7% | −13.7 pp | 3.34 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MTK Budapest sample
- 20 matches
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.