Paksi FC 2:0 Újpest: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Paksi FC Home 2.22 xG

Újpest Away 2.12 xG

20 The chances were evenly matched

Paksi FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Újpest's attack: 2.12 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.71).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Paksi FC: 53% What happened
Draw: 24%
Újpest: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Paksi FC 2.12 2.22 +0.10

Újpest 1.41 2.12 +0.71

Újpest produced 0.71 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Paksi FC Újpest

Shots: 18; 22
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 11; 13
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Paksi FC

1.81 xG created 2.02 xGA

L 0.12 created, 2.21 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
W 2.03 created, 1.95 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.78 created, 2.35 conceded against Ferencváros TC
W 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 3.05 created, 0.93 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
L 2.30 created, 3.67 conceded against Puskás Akadémia

Újpest

1.41 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 0.76 created, 2.07 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.69 created, 1.44 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 1.07 created, 2.57 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Kisvárda FC
D 0.97 created, 2.49 conceded against MTK Budapest

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Paksi FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Paksi FC against Újpest before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Paksi FC 2+ goals	1.57	+1.9%	Won
Paksi FC to win	1.90	+1.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.40	+0.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paksi FC	53.2%	49.2%	+4.0 pp	1.88
Draw	24.1%	24.9%	−0.8 pp	4.14
Újpest	22.7%	25.9%	−3.3 pp	4.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Paksi FC to score	90.0%	85.4%	+4.5 pp	1.11
Paksi FC not to score	10.0%	14.6%	−4.5 pp	9.95
Újpest to score	78.3%	75.0%	+3.3 pp	1.28
Újpest not to score	21.7%	25.0%	−3.3 pp	4.62
Both teams to score	71.6%	66.3%	+5.4 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.4%	33.7%	−5.4 pp	3.53
Paksi FC 2+ goals	64.9%	58.9%	+6.0 pp	1.54
Paksi FC at most 1 goal	35.1%	41.1%	−6.0 pp	2.85
Újpest 2+ goals	42.2%	42.3%	−0.1 pp	2.37
Újpest at most 1 goal	57.8%	57.7%	+0.1 pp	1.73
Over 1.5 goals	89.9%	86.4%	+3.5 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	10.1%	13.6%	−3.5 pp	9.94
Over 2.5 goals	70.7%	67.3%	+3.5 pp	1.41
Under 2.5 goals	29.3%	32.7%	−3.5 pp	3.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Paksi FC sample: 20 matches
Újpest sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.