Puskás Akadémia 1:2 Ferencváros TC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Puskás Akadémia Home 0.73 xG

Ferencváros TC Away 1.95 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Ferencváros TC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Puskás Akadémia's attack: 0.73 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.72).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Puskás Akadémia: 28%
Draw: 26%
Ferencváros TC: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Puskás Akadémia 1.45 0.73 -0.72

Ferencváros TC 1.83 1.95 +0.12

Puskás Akadémia produced 0.72 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Puskás Akadémia Ferencváros TC

Shots: 7; 17
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 7; 9
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Puskás Akadémia

2.70 xG created 2.03 xGA

W 2.03 created, 1.17 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
D 2.09 created, 2.98 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.17 created, 2.54 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 3.63 created, 1.70 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 3.67 created, 2.30 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.58 created, 1.49 conceded against Vasas

Ferencváros TC

2.05 xG created 1.16 xGA

W 2.95 created, 1.29 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 1.73 created, 1.93 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.35 created, 0.78 conceded against Paksi FC
W 1.44 created, 0.69 conceded against Újpest
W 1.70 created, 0.93 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 2.11 created, 1.36 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Puskás Akadémia: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Puskás Akadémia against Ferencváros TC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Puskás Akadémia 2+ goals	2.50	+9.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+6.8%	Won
Puskás Akadémia to score	1.30	+5.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+5.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+3.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Puskás Akadémia	28.1%	26.3%	+1.9 pp	3.55
Draw	26.4%	25.5%	+0.9 pp	3.79
Ferencváros TC	45.5%	48.2%	−2.8 pp	2.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Puskás Akadémia to score	79.1%	72.3%	+6.8 pp	1.26
Puskás Akadémia not to score	20.9%	27.7%	−6.8 pp	4.79
Ferencváros TC to score	86.3%	82.8%	+3.6 pp	1.16
Ferencváros TC not to score	13.7%	17.2%	−3.6 pp	7.32
Both teams to score	69.7%	60.8%	+8.9 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	30.3%	39.2%	−8.9 pp	3.30
Puskás Akadémia 2+ goals	43.7%	37.5%	+6.2 pp	2.29
Puskás Akadémia at most 1 goal	56.3%	62.5%	−6.2 pp	1.78
Ferencváros TC 2+ goals	56.8%	53.7%	+3.1 pp	1.76
Ferencváros TC at most 1 goal	43.2%	46.3%	−3.1 pp	2.31
Over 1.5 goals	87.5%	79.2%	+8.3 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.5%	20.8%	−8.3 pp	8.01
Over 2.5 goals	65.9%	58.2%	+7.7 pp	1.52
Under 2.5 goals	34.1%	41.8%	−7.7 pp	2.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Puskás Akadémia sample: 20 matches
Ferencváros TC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.