Dukla Banská Bystrica 2:2 KFC Komárno: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Dukla Banská Bystrica Home

KFC Komárno Away

Dukla Banská Bystrica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 2–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dukla Banská Bystrica: 36%
Draw: 28% What happened
KFC Komárno: 36%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.79 xG created 2.48 xGA

L 1.08 created, 1.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 0.56 created, 3.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.74 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Ružomberok

KFC Komárno

1.62 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 2.10 created, 0.71 conceded against MFK Zvolen
D 2.59 created, 0.61 conceded against AS Trenčín
L 1.59 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
D 1.21 created, 0.65 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
L 1.21 created, 2.68 conceded against DAC 1904
L 1.04 created, 1.54 conceded against MŠK Žilina

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged7 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dukla Banská Bystrica against KFC Komárno before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals	2.75	+29.7%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.90	+16.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.73	+16.6%	Won
Dukla Banská Bystrica to win	3.10	+11.8%	Lost
Dukla Banská Bystrica to score	1.36	+10.9%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+6.5%	Won
KFC Komárno 2+ goals	2.20	+3.4%	Won
KFC Komárno to score	1.25	+1.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dukla Banská Bystrica	36.1%	30.4%	+5.6 pp	2.77
Draw	28.1%	28.6%	−0.5 pp	3.56
KFC Komárno	35.8%	41.0%	−5.2 pp	2.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dukla Banská Bystrica to score	81.3%	68.7%	+12.6 pp	1.23
Dukla Banská Bystrica not to score	18.7%	31.3%	−12.6 pp	5.35
KFC Komárno to score	81.2%	75.0%	+6.2 pp	1.23
KFC Komárno not to score	18.8%	25.0%	−6.2 pp	5.32
Both teams to score	67.5%	53.7%	+13.9 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.5%	46.3%	−13.9 pp	3.08
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals	47.2%	33.7%	+13.4 pp	2.12
Dukla Banská Bystrica at most 1 goal	52.8%	66.3%	−13.4 pp	1.89
KFC Komárno 2+ goals	47.0%	42.3%	+4.7 pp	2.13
KFC Komárno at most 1 goal	53.0%	57.7%	−4.7 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	85.2%	75.0%	+10.2 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.8%	25.0%	−10.2 pp	6.75
Over 2.5 goals	61.5%	50.0%	+11.5 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.5%	50.0%	−11.5 pp	2.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dukla Banská Bystrica sample: 3 matches
KFC Komárno sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.