Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeMŠK Žilina 2:1 KFC Komárno
MŠK Žilina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was KFC Komárno's attack: 1.04 xG against 1.34 projected (−0.30). MŠK Žilina produced 1.54 xG against 1.80 projected (−0.26).
The model against the result
- MŠK Žilina
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- KFC Komárno
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KFC Komárno produced 0.30 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 7
- On target
- 5
- 1
- Inside the box
- 12
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.15
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 1.06 created, 1.75 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 2.53 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.10 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 0.30 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 0.76 created, 1.42 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 3.25 created, 1.08 conceded against MFK Skalica
1.68 xG created 1.39 xGA
- W 1.41 created, 1.76 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
- L 2.10 created, 0.71 conceded against MFK Zvolen
- D 2.59 created, 0.61 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 1.59 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- D 1.21 created, 0.65 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.21 created, 2.68 conceded against DAC 1904
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFC Komárno to win | 4.75 | +23.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +15.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +6.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +3.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.75 | +0.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MŠK Žilina | 47.2% | 55.2% | −8.1 pp | 2.12 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 25.0% | +1.8 pp | 3.72 |
| KFC Komárno | 26.0% | 19.8% | +6.2 pp | 3.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 53.7% | +13.5 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.9% | 46.3% | −13.5 pp | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 78.3% | +7.5 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 21.7% | −7.5 pp | 7.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 55.3% | +7.5 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.7% | −7.5 pp | 2.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.