Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Košice 1:2 ŠK Slovan Bratislava
ŠK Slovan Bratislava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was ŠK Slovan Bratislava's attack: 4.66 xG against 1.65 projected (+3.01). FC Košice produced 0.92 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.64).
The model against the result
- FC Košice
- 34%
- Draw
- 27%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 38% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
ŠK Slovan Bratislava produced 3.01 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 16
- On target
- 4
- 7
- Inside the box
- 8
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.29
Recent form
1.64 xG created 2.05 xGA
- L 0.61 created, 1.50 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
- W 2.80 created, 2.34 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- L 1.29 created, 2.13 conceded against MFK Skalica
- W 2.16 created, 2.30 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 2.04 created, 1.57 conceded against AS Trenčín
- W 0.93 created, 2.43 conceded against MFK Skalica
1.82 xG created 1.17 xGA
- W 1.11 created, 0.92 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.95 created, 1.10 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- L 0.56 created, 1.85 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.66 created, 1.08 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 3.14 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Košice to win | 3.60 | +23.1% | Lost |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 2.38 | +13.3% | Lost |
| FC Košice to score | 1.30 | +6.1% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +4.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +4.0% | Lost |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Košice | 34.2% | 26.1% | +8.1 pp | 2.92 |
| Draw | 27.4% | 24.7% | +2.7 pp | 3.65 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | 38.4% | 49.2% | −10.8 pp | 2.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Košice to score | 81.6% | 72.3% | +9.3 pp | 1.22 |
| FC Košice not to score | 18.4% | 27.7% | −9.3 pp | 5.45 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava to score | 83.3% | 83.0% | +0.3 pp | 1.20 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 16.7% | 17.0% | −0.3 pp | 6.00 |
| Both teams to score | 69.5% | 62.5% | +7.0 pp | 1.44 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.5% | 37.5% | −7.0 pp | 3.27 |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 47.7% | 39.2% | +8.5 pp | 2.10 |
| FC Košice at most 1 goal | 52.3% | 60.8% | −8.5 pp | 1.91 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals | 50.9% | 55.7% | −4.9 pp | 1.97 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 49.1% | 44.3% | +4.9 pp | 2.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | 81.4% | +5.4 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.2% | 18.6% | −5.4 pp | 7.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 62.5% | +1.9 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 37.5% | −1.9 pp | 2.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.