Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offArda Kardzhali – Botev Vratsa
Model not yet run Best odds updated 29 August, 09:04
What the model expects
- Arda Kardzhali
- 50%
- Draw
- 32%
- Botev Vratsa
- 18%
| Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.02 | 3.11 | 5.46 |
- Total goals
- 2.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Arda Kardzhali
- Model
- 49.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 62.5%
- Probability gap
- −13.0 pp
- Edge
- −25.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.02
- Market odds
- 1.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.12
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.0%
- Probability gap
- +7.2 pp
- Edge
- +20.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.11
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.26
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
-
Botev Vratsa
- Model
- 18.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.5%
- Probability gap
- +5.8 pp
- Edge
- +37.3%
- Fair odds
- 5.46
- Market odds
- 7.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
Outcomes with value
Botev Vratsa to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Botev Vratsa to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Arda Kardzhali not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Botev Vratsa to win
Model 18.3% vs. bookmaker 12.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Arda Kardzhali
50% Arda Kardzhali to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 10th
- Arda Kardzhali attack v Botev Vratsa defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 12th
- Arda Kardzhali defence v Botev Vratsa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.14 vs -0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 0.78
- Arda Kardzhali v Botev Vratsa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.55 · 6th | 0.93 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 7th | 1.49 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.29 · 6th | -0.55 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.57 · 6th | 1.03 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.14 | -0.43 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arda Kardzhali
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Botev Vratsa
- 3 matches
- Odds updated
- 35 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.