Monday, 31/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeArda Kardzhali 2:0 Botev Vratsa
Arda Kardzhali were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Arda Kardzhali
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Botev Vratsa
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.95 xG created 0.81 xGA
- W 3.10 created, 0.50 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D 0.66 created, 1.39 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 2.57 created, 0.00 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 2.59 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00 xG created 1.43 xGA
- W 1.24 created, 1.54 conceded against FK Dobrudzha Dobrich
- D 0.95 created, 0.55 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 1.16 created, 0.89 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 1.17 created, 3.72 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.93 created, 1.09 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- W 0.54 created, 0.77 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa to win | 7.50 | +38.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +20.5% | Lost |
| Botev Vratsa 2+ goals | 6.50 | +14.9% | Lost |
| Arda Kardzhali not to score | 5.00 | +13.7% | Lost |
| Botev Vratsa to score | 1.91 | +9.3% | Lost |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +8.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +3.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 49.4% | 62.5% | −13.1 pp | 2.02 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 25.0% | +7.1 pp | 3.11 |
| Botev Vratsa | 18.4% | 12.5% | +5.9 pp | 5.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali to score | 77.3% | 81.1% | −3.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Arda Kardzhali not to score | 22.7% | 18.9% | +3.8 pp | 4.40 |
| Botev Vratsa to score | 57.3% | 48.5% | +8.7 pp | 1.75 |
| Botev Vratsa not to score | 42.7% | 51.5% | −8.7 pp | 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 41.1% | +5.0 pp | 2.17 |
| Both teams not to score | 53.9% | 58.9% | −5.0 pp | 1.86 |
| Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals | 40.6% | 50.0% | −9.4 pp | 2.46 |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 59.4% | 50.0% | +9.4 pp | 1.68 |
| Botev Vratsa 2+ goals | 17.7% | 14.6% | +3.1 pp | 5.66 |
| Botev Vratsa at most 1 goal | 82.3% | 85.4% | −3.1 pp | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | 66.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.48 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 33.7% | −1.3 pp | 3.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 41.0% | −4.4 pp | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 59.0% | +4.4 pp | 1.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.