Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offBotev Vratsa – Botev Plovdiv
Model not yet run Best odds updated 21 August, 10:34
What the model expects
- Botev Vratsa
- 26%
- Draw
- 31%
- Botev Plovdiv
- 43%
| Botev Vratsa | Draw | Botev Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.80 | 3.24 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Botev Vratsa
- Model
- 26.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.1%
- Probability gap
- +0.2 pp
- Edge
- −5.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.80
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.99
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.9%
- Probability gap
- +4.0 pp
- Edge
- +8.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.24
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.40
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.3%
-
Botev Plovdiv
- Model
- 42.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 47.0%
- Probability gap
- −4.2 pp
- Edge
- −14.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
- Market odds
- 2.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.3%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Botev Plovdiv
43% Botev Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Botev Plovdiv attack v Botev Vratsa defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 12th
- Botev Plovdiv defence v Botev Vratsa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.93 vs -0.33
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.10 – 1.44
- Botev Vratsa v Botev Plovdiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 11th | (better) 1.61 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.49 · 10th | (better) 1.01 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.55 · 10th | (better) +0.60 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.03 · 10th | (better) 1.83 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.33 | (better) +0.93 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Botev Vratsa
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Botev Plovdiv
- 4 matches
- Odds updated
- 43 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.