Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeCSKA Sofia 3:1 Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 3–1.
The model against the result
- CSKA Sofia
- 55% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Cherno More Varna
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.24 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 1.73 created, 0.88 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- D 0.58 created, 1.49 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 0.27 created, 1.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 1.53 created, 0.37 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- W 1.54 created, 2.39 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- W 1.81 created, 0.34 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
0.85 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 0.53 created, 1.32 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 1.15 created, 2.68 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- D 0.55 created, 0.95 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 1.94 created, 1.60 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- L 0.25 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 0.68 created, 1.50 conceded against Ludogorets
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.10 | +14.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +11.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 55.4% | 63.6% | −8.2 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 23.0% | +6.4 pp | 3.41 |
| Cherno More Varna | 15.2% | 13.4% | +1.8 pp | 6.57 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 46.3% | +1.0 pp | 2.11 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.6% | 53.7% | −1.0 pp | 1.90 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | 75.0% | −3.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.0% | +3.7 pp | 3.48 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 51.3% | −10.1 pp | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 48.7% | +10.1 pp | 1.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.