FK Dunav Ruse 2:2 Lokomotiv Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FK Dunav Ruse Home 2.57 xG

Lokomotiv Sofia Away 2.14 xG

22 FK Dunav Ruse had the better chances, but it finished level

FK Dunav Ruse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FK Dunav Ruse's attack: 2.57 xG against 1.46 projected (+1.11). Lokomotiv Sofia produced 2.14 xG against 1.32 projected (+0.82).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Dunav Ruse: 38%
Draw: 30% What happened
Lokomotiv Sofia: 32%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Dunav Ruse 1.46 2.57 +1.11

Lokomotiv Sofia 1.32 2.14 +0.82

FK Dunav Ruse produced 1.11 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Dunav Ruse Lokomotiv Sofia

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Dunav Ruse

0.87 xG created 2.28 xGA

L 1.13 created, 2.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
L 0.81 created, 2.12 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.34 created, 1.81 conceded against CSKA Sofia
L 1.20 created, 2.59 conceded against Arda Kardzhali

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.85 xG created 1.66 xGA

W 0.79 created, 1.16 conceded against Slavia Sofia
D 0.53 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.53 created, 2.43 conceded against Levski Sofia
D 0.91 created, 0.60 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.64 created, 2.54 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 0.71 created, 0.91 conceded against Arda Kardzhali

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Dunav Ruse against Lokomotiv Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Dunav Ruse to win	3.25	+24.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.75	+8.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	+8.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+3.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Dunav Ruse	38.4%	27.7%	+10.7 pp	2.61
Draw	29.8%	27.3%	+2.5 pp	3.36
Lokomotiv Sofia	31.9%	45.0%	−13.1 pp	3.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.0%	52.7%	+9.3 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	38.0%	47.3%	−9.3 pp	2.63
Over 1.5 goals	80.6%	71.6%	+8.9 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.4%	28.4%	−8.9 pp	5.15
Over 2.5 goals	54.0%	46.3%	+7.6 pp	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	46.0%	53.7%	−7.6 pp	2.17

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Dunav Ruse sample: 4 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Dunav Ruse has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.