Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offLokomotiv Sofia – CSKA Sofia
Model not yet run Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 25%
- Draw
- 31%
- CSKA Sofia
- 44%
| Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.96 | 3.24 | 2.28 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans CSKA Sofia
44% CSKA Sofia to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- CSKA Sofia attack v Lokomotiv Sofia defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 7th
- CSKA Sofia defence v Lokomotiv Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.07 vs -0.80
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.07 – 1.44
- Lokomotiv Sofia v CSKA Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 8th | (better) 2.13 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.10 · 12th | (better) 0.90 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -1.00 · 12th | (better) +1.23 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 2.18 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.80 | (better) +0.07 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · CSKA Sofia
- 3 matches
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.