Parva Liga (Bulgaria) expected points table 2026/2027
Every Parva Liga (Bulgaria) club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Levski Sofia lead on expected points with 19.73 over 9 matches with xG. That is 5.08 clear of Botev Plovdiv. Slavia Sofia sit 6 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 7 against 13 on expected points. Botev Plovdiv sit 4 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 6 against 2 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia LEV | 9 | 25 | 19.73 | +5.27 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Botev Plovdiv BOT | 10 | 16 | 14.65 | −4.65 | 6 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia FCC | 10 | 22 | 14.27 | +4.73 | 4 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Ludogorets LUD | 9 | 23 | 13.15 | +4.85 | 3 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia CSK | 10 | 24 | 13.11 | −1.11 | 2 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali ARD | 10 | 17 | 11.01 | −0.01 | 5 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 7 | FK Septemvri Sofia FKS | 10 | 8 | 8.98 | −0.98 | 10 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv LOK | 10 | 7 | 8.97 | −4.97 | 12 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna CHE | 10 | 6 | 7.78 | −4.78 | 13 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa BOT | 10 | 9 | 7.24 | +0.76 | 9 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia LOK | 10 | 7 | 7.21 | −0.21 | 11 | Same place as on expected points |
| 12 | FK Spartak Varna FKS | 10 | 10 | 5.66 | +2.34 | 8 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Slavia Sofia SLA | 10 | 11 | 5.63 | +0.37 | 7 | 6 places above its expected-points rank |
| 14 | FK Dunav Ruse FKD | 10 | 5 | 3.77 | −2.77 | 14 | Same place as on expected points |
13 of the 14 clubs here have expected figures over fewer matches than they have played. For those clubs every expected figure counts only the matches with xG, and the goals it is compared with come from those same matches.
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.