Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offDundalk FC – St. Patrick's Athletic
Model updated 4 September, 10:12 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundalk FC
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- St. Patrick's Athletic
- 34%
| Dundalk FC | Draw | St. Patrick's Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.57 | 3.73 | 2.92 |
- Total goals
- 3.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
39% Dundalk FC to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 1st
- Dundalk FC attack v St. Patrick's Athletic defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 2nd
- Dundalk FC defence v St. Patrick's Athletic attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.28 vs +0.91
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.70 – 1.61
- Dundalk FC v St. Patrick's Athletic
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundalk FC | St. Patrick's Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.58 · 3rd | (better) 1.78 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 7th | (better) 0.93 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.01 · 5th | (better) +0.85 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.37 · 6th | (better) 1.87 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.28 | (better) +0.91 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- St. Patrick's Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundalk FC
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · St. Patrick's Athletic
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 04/09/2026 at 10:12
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.