Shamrock Rovers 0:0 Shelbourne: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Shamrock Rovers Home 1.65 xG

Shelbourne Away 0.82 xG

00 Shamrock Rovers had the better chances, but it finished level

Shamrock Rovers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Shelbourne's attack: 0.82 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Shamrock Rovers: 45%
Draw: 30% What happened
Shelbourne: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Shamrock Rovers 1.54 1.65 +0.11

Shelbourne 1.15 0.82 -0.33

Shelbourne produced 0.33 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Shamrock Rovers Shelbourne

Shots: 16; 11
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 10; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.65 xG created 1.45 xGA

D 1.45 created, 1.31 conceded against Derry City
W 2.49 created, 2.40 conceded against Galway United
W 1.62 created, 1.12 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 0.76 created, 0.94 conceded against Drogheda United
W 2.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Dundalk FC
D 0.89 created, 1.20 conceded against Derry City

Shelbourne

1.38 xG created 1.56 xGA

L 0.38 created, 1.25 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.12 created, 1.81 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 1.93 created, 0.95 conceded against Dundalk FC
L 1.47 created, 1.67 conceded against Waterford FC
L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 2.26 created, 0.54 conceded against Galway United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Shamrock Rovers: 2 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Shamrock Rovers against Shelbourne before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Shelbourne to win	4.75	+21.7%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+9.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.80	+7.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Shamrock Rovers	44.8%	55.8%	−11.0 pp	2.23
Draw	29.6%	24.9%	+4.7 pp	3.38
Shelbourne	25.6%	19.4%	+6.2 pp	3.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.6%	52.0%	+7.6 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.4%	48.0%	−7.6 pp	2.48
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	75.0%	+4.3 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	25.0%	−4.3 pp	4.82
Over 2.5 goals	52.0%	51.3%	+0.6 pp	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	48.0%	48.7%	−0.6 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Shamrock Rovers sample: 20 matches
Shelbourne sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.