Waterford FC 2:2 Derry City: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Waterford FC Home 1.50 xG

Derry City Away 0.89 xG

22 Waterford FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Waterford FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Derry City's attack: 0.89 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.52).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Waterford FC: 39%
Draw: 29% What happened
Derry City: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Waterford FC 1.57 1.50 -0.07

Derry City 1.41 0.89 -0.52

Derry City produced 0.52 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Waterford FC Derry City

Shots: 16; 14
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Waterford FC

1.64 xG created 1.07 xGA

D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against Galway United
W 1.67 created, 1.47 conceded against Shelbourne
W 1.66 created, 1.04 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.59 created, 0.66 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 2.27 created, 1.42 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 2.04 created, 0.55 conceded against Dundalk FC

Derry City

1.23 xG created 1.54 xGA

L 1.54 created, 3.29 conceded against Waterford FC
D 0.50 created, 1.67 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 1.68 created, 0.23 conceded against Sligo Rovers
L 1.39 created, 2.32 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.20 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
W 1.05 created, 0.82 conceded against Shelbourne

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Waterford FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Waterford FC against Derry City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.67	+10.0%	Won
Waterford FC 2+ goals	2.25	+8.6%	Won
Waterford FC to score	1.29	+5.4%	Won
Waterford FC to win	2.63	+3.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+2.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+2.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Waterford FC	39.5%	34.8%	+4.7 pp	2.53
Draw	28.6%	26.8%	+1.7 pp	3.50
Derry City	31.9%	38.4%	−6.5 pp	3.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Waterford FC to score	82.0%	73.1%	+8.8 pp	1.22
Waterford FC not to score	18.0%	26.9%	−8.8 pp	5.55
Derry City to score	78.5%	75.0%	+3.5 pp	1.27
Derry City not to score	21.5%	25.0%	−3.5 pp	4.66
Both teams to score	66.0%	55.7%	+10.2 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.0%	44.3%	−10.2 pp	2.94
Waterford FC 2+ goals	48.3%	41.1%	+7.2 pp	2.07
Waterford FC at most 1 goal	51.7%	58.9%	−7.2 pp	1.93
Derry City 2+ goals	42.5%	42.3%	+0.2 pp	2.35
Derry City at most 1 goal	57.5%	57.7%	−0.2 pp	1.74
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	76.6%	+7.4 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	23.4%	−7.4 pp	6.25
Over 2.5 goals	59.4%	54.6%	+4.8 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.6%	45.4%	−4.8 pp	2.46

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Waterford FC sample: 20 matches
Derry City sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.