Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeIpswich Town 2:1 Sunderland
Ipswich Town were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Sunderland's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.44). Ipswich Town produced 1.80 xG against 1.52 projected (+0.28).
Goals
- 24' Emersonn Ipswich Town · 0.74 xG chance 1–0
- 39' Nilson Angulo Sunderland · 0.08 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Jack Clarke Ipswich Town · 0.04 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Ipswich Town
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Sunderland
- 25%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Sunderland produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 11
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.62
- 0.55
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.21
- Penalties
- —
- —
Ipswich Town's shots add up to 1.68 xG and Sunderland's to 0.76; the published figures are 1.80 and 0.66.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.44 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Ipswich Town
- Sunderland
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.16 xG created 1.37 xGA
- L 1.73 created, 2.84 conceded against Aston Villa
- L 0.70 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- D 0.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.25 created, 0.62 conceded against Manchester United
- W 0.76 created, 1.04 conceded against Everton
- W 1.84 created, 0.89 conceded against Chelsea
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 2.70 | +22.4% | Won |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 2.50 | +15.6% | Won |
| Sunderland at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +6.8% | Won |
| Sunderland not to score | 3.50 | +5.8% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town to score | 1.30 | +5.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 45.3% | 35.1% | +10.2 pp | 2.21 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.7% | +1.3 pp | 3.33 |
| Sunderland | 24.6% | 36.1% | −11.5 pp | 4.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to score | 80.7% | 72.3% | +8.4 pp | 1.24 |
| Ipswich Town not to score | 19.3% | 27.7% | −8.4 pp | 5.19 |
| Sunderland to score | 69.8% | 73.1% | −3.4 pp | 1.43 |
| Sunderland not to score | 30.2% | 26.9% | +3.4 pp | 3.31 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 54.7% | +3.4 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.9% | 45.3% | −3.4 pp | 2.39 |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 46.2% | 37.5% | +8.7 pp | 2.16 |
| Ipswich Town at most 1 goal | 53.8% | 62.5% | −8.7 pp | 1.86 |
| Sunderland 2+ goals | 30.3% | 39.2% | −8.9 pp | 3.30 |
| Sunderland at most 1 goal | 69.7% | 60.8% | +8.9 pp | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | 74.5% | +3.4 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 25.5% | −3.4 pp | 4.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 50.0% | −0.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 50.0% | +0.1 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ipswich Town sample
- 0 matches
- Sunderland sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Ipswich Town — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.