FC Koper 2:0 NK Nafta Lendava 1903: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

FC Koper Home 2.19 xG

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away 2.03 xG

20 The chances were evenly matched

FC Koper were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was NK Nafta Lendava 1903's attack: 2.03 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.82). FC Koper produced 2.19 xG against 1.89 projected (+0.30).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Koper: 52% What happened
Draw: 26%
NK Nafta Lendava 1903: 22%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Koper 1.89 2.19 +0.30

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.21 2.03 +0.82

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 produced 0.82 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Koper NK Nafta Lendava 1903

Shots: 19; 13
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 8; 11
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Koper

1.19 xG created 1.15 xGA

L 0.54 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Maribor
D 2.12 created, 1.60 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against NŠ Mura
W 0.87 created, 0.22 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
W 1.88 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
L 0.60 created, 1.49 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana

NK Nafta Lendava 1903

1.69 xG created 1.59 xGA

D 1.01 created, 1.58 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
L 1.29 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
L 2.62 created, 1.92 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 0.52 created, 1.99 conceded against NK Maribor
W 3.23 created, 0.84 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.46 created, 1.09 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Koper: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0:2 FC Koper 17/07/2026 xG 1.94 – 1.49

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Koper against NK Nafta Lendava 1903 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.73	+12.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+3.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+2.3%	Won
Draw	3.90	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Koper	52.4%	56.4%	−4.0 pp	1.91
Draw	26.1%	23.4%	+2.7 pp	3.83
NK Nafta Lendava 1903	21.6%	20.2%	+1.3 pp	4.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.1%	53.7%	+11.4 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	34.9%	46.3%	−11.4 pp	2.86
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	78.3%	+7.0 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	21.7%	−7.0 pp	6.79
Over 2.5 goals	61.9%	56.3%	+5.5 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.1%	43.7%	−5.5 pp	2.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Koper sample: 20 matches
NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample: 4 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

NK Nafta Lendava 1903 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.