NK Aluminij Kidričevo 4:2 Brinje Grosuplje: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home 3.53 xG

Brinje Grosuplje Away 1.20 xG

42 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Aluminij Kidričevo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was NK Aluminij Kidričevo's attack: 3.53 xG against 1.27 projected (+2.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Aluminij Kidričevo: 36% What happened
Draw: 32%
Brinje Grosuplje: 32%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.27 3.53 +2.26

Brinje Grosuplje 1.19 1.20 +0.01

NK Aluminij Kidričevo produced 2.26 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Aluminij Kidričevo Brinje Grosuplje

Shots: 12; 5
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 10; 3
xG per shot: 0.29; 0.24

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Aluminij Kidričevo

1.17 xG created 1.49 xGA

D 0.83 created, 1.34 conceded against ND Primorje
L 1.62 created, 2.62 conceded against NK Maribor
D 1.13 created, 0.85 conceded against NK Maribor
L 0.56 created, 2.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
D 1.58 created, 1.01 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
W 1.28 created, 1.02 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje

Brinje Grosuplje

1.15 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 1.14 created, 0.84 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
L 0.35 created, 1.38 conceded against NK Maribor
D 0.69 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Koper
D 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against NK Bravo
L 1.48 created, 1.72 conceded against NŠ Mura

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Aluminij Kidričevo against Brinje Grosuplje before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.20	+2.4%	Lost
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	1.62	+1.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+0.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Aluminij Kidričevo	36.3%	40.3%	−4.1 pp	2.76
Draw	32.0%	28.4%	+3.6 pp	3.13
Brinje Grosuplje	31.7%	31.3%	+0.4 pp	3.15

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	75.1%	75.0%	+0.1 pp	1.33
NK Aluminij Kidričevo not to score	24.9%	25.0%	−0.1 pp	4.01
Brinje Grosuplje to score	72.4%	68.7%	+3.6 pp	1.38
Brinje Grosuplje not to score	27.6%	31.3%	−3.6 pp	3.62
Both teams to score	56.2%	53.7%	+2.5 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.8%	46.3%	−2.5 pp	2.28
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	37.2%	42.3%	−5.1 pp	2.69
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	62.8%	57.7%	+5.1 pp	1.59
Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals	33.8%	35.5%	−1.7 pp	2.96
Brinje Grosuplje at most 1 goal	66.2%	64.5%	+1.7 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	73.1%	+1.8 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	26.9%	−1.8 pp	3.99
Over 2.5 goals	45.6%	48.7%	−3.0 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.4%	51.3%	+3.0 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample: 20 matches
Brinje Grosuplje sample: 3 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Brinje Grosuplje has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.