NK Maribor 1:1 NŠ Mura: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Maribor Home 1.38 xG

NŠ Mura Away 0.58 xG

11 NK Maribor had the better chances, but it finished level

NK Maribor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was NŠ Mura's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.59).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Maribor: 38%
Draw: 32% What happened
NŠ Mura: 30%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Maribor 1.33 1.38 +0.05

NŠ Mura 1.17 0.58 -0.59

NŠ Mura produced 0.59 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Maribor NŠ Mura

Shots: 17; 6
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 11; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Maribor

1.29 xG created 0.70 xGA

W 1.38 created, 0.35 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
D 1.44 created, 1.35 conceded against NK Celje
W 0.40 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Koper
D 0.97 created, 0.46 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 1.55 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.99 created, 0.52 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903

NŠ Mura

1.45 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 0.30 created, 1.12 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
L 1.94 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.24 created, 1.66 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 1.72 created, 1.48 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 1.06 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Koper
L 2.42 created, 1.63 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Maribor: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Maribor against NŠ Mura before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NŠ Mura to win	5.75	+74.0%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+49.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+25.4%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+10.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+3.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Maribor	38.2%	65.0%	−26.8 pp	2.62
Draw	31.6%	19.2%	+12.4 pp	3.17
NŠ Mura	30.3%	15.8%	+14.4 pp	3.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.6%	50.0%	+6.6 pp	1.77
Both teams not to score	43.4%	50.0%	−6.6 pp	2.31
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	79.4%	−3.9 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	20.6%	+3.9 pp	4.09
Over 2.5 goals	46.6%	59.9%	−13.3 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.4%	40.1%	+13.3 pp	1.87

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Maribor sample: 20 matches
NŠ Mura sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.