Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:45
Full timeBaltika Kaliningrad 2:3 Zenit St. Petersburg
Zenit St. Petersburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 3–2.
The model against the result
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 31%
- Draw
- 34%
- Zenit St. Petersburg
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.51 xG created 0.94 xGA
- D 0.58 created, 1.19 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- D 2.25 created, 0.62 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- L 1.17 created, 0.51 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 0.44 created, 0.30 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- L 2.40 created, 0.91 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
1.99 xG created 0.78 xGA
- W 1.59 created, 0.15 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- D 0.56 created, 1.82 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 2.00 created, 0.60 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- W 1.93 created, 1.35 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- W 3.99 created, 0.27 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 1.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FC Rostov
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad to win | 4.43 | +38.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.54 | +19.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 31.2% | 21.3% | +9.9 pp | 3.20 |
| Draw | 33.6% | 26.7% | +6.9 pp | 2.97 |
| Zenit St. Petersburg | 35.2% | 52.0% | −16.8 pp | 2.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 41.1% | −1.8 pp | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 58.9% | +1.8 pp | 1.65 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- Zenit St. Petersburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.