Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:30
5d 17h to kick-offFC Rostov – Akron Togliatti
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:24
What the model expects
- FC Rostov
- 52%
- Draw
- 27%
- Akron Togliatti
- 21%
| FC Rostov | Draw | Akron Togliatti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.92 | 3.69 | 4.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
FC Rostov
- Model
- 52.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 52.6%
- Probability gap
- −0.4 pp
- Edge
- −6.1%
- Fair odds
- 1.92
- Market odds
- 1.80 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.01
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.4%
- Probability gap
- +1.7 pp
- Edge
- +0.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.69
- Market odds
- 3.72 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.87
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
-
Akron Togliatti
- Model
- 20.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.0%
- Probability gap
- −1.3 pp
- Edge
- −10.8%
- Fair odds
- 4.82
- Market odds
- 4.30 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FC Rostov
52% FC Rostov to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 16th
- FC Rostov attack v Akron Togliatti defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 11th
- FC Rostov defence v Akron Togliatti attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.54 vs -0.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.79 – 1.12
- FC Rostov v Akron Togliatti
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Rostov | Akron Togliatti |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.54 | -0.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FC Rostov clean sheet
- 30%
- FC Rostov 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Rostov
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Akron Togliatti
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.