Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFC Rostov 3:1 Fakel Voronezh
FC Rostov were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–1.
The model against the result
- FC Rostov
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Fakel Voronezh
- 29%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Recent form
0.77 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 0.29 created, 0.76 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 0.72 created, 0.85 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- L 1.49 created, 1.37 conceded against Orenburg
- W 0.32 created, 1.25 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.29 created, 1.76 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 0.51 created, 1.88 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh to win | 4.67 | +34.7% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.34 | +17.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.35 | +2.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Rostov | 40.6% | 50.7% | −10.0 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 28.7% | +1.8 pp | 3.28 |
| Fakel Voronezh | 28.8% | 20.6% | +8.2 pp | 3.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 40.6% | +9.5 pp | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 59.4% | −9.5 pp | 2.01 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Fakel Voronezh sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Fakel Voronezh — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.