Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 18:30
11d 1h to kick-offLokomotiv Moscow – FK Krasnodar
Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 31%
- Draw
- 27%
- FK Krasnodar
- 42%
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | FK Krasnodar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.19 | 3.68 | 2.41 |
- Total goals
- 3.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Krasnodar
42% FK Krasnodar to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- FK Krasnodar attack v Lokomotiv Moscow defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 3rd
- FK Krasnodar defence v Lokomotiv Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs +0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.72
- Lokomotiv Moscow v FK Krasnodar
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Moscow | FK Krasnodar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.44 from 1 match | (better) 1.89 from 2 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.87 from 1 match | (better) 1.12 from 2 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.43 from 1 match | (better) +0.78 from 2 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.06 from 1 match | (better) 1.87 from 2 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.26 | (better) +0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FK Krasnodar clean sheet
- 20%
- FK Krasnodar 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.4%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- FK Krasnodar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Moscow
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · FK Krasnodar
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.