Rubin Kazan 1:1 Akhmat Grozny: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Rubin Kazan Home

Akhmat Grozny Away

Rubin Kazan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rubin Kazan: 34%
Draw: 32% What happened
Akhmat Grozny: 34%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rubin Kazan

1.26 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 1.94 created, 0.65 conceded against Akron Togliatti
W 1.65 created, 1.43 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
D 1.88 created, 1.18 conceded against CSKA Moscow
W 0.30 created, 0.44 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.97 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
L 0.79 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Krasnodar

Akhmat Grozny

1.16 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 0.62 created, 2.25 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.60 created, 2.00 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
W 2.03 created, 1.07 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
D 0.97 created, 0.66 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
D 0.86 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Sochi
D 1.87 created, 1.44 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rubin Kazan: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rubin Kazan against Akhmat Grozny before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.42	+5.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rubin Kazan	34.0%	33.2%	+0.8 pp	2.94
Draw	32.5%	32.2%	+0.3 pp	3.08
Akhmat Grozny	33.5%	34.5%	−1.0 pp	2.98

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	43.7%	39.7%	+4.0 pp	2.29
Under 2.5 goals	56.3%	60.3%	−4.0 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rubin Kazan sample: 20 matches
Akhmat Grozny sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.