Celtic 2:1 Falkirk FC: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Celtic Home 2.87 xG · 19 shots

Falkirk FC Away 0.53 xG · 6 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Celtic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Celtic's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.81 projected (+1.06). Falkirk FC produced 0.53 xG against 0.92 projected (−0.39).

Goals

4' Camilo Durán Celtic · 0.35 xG chance 1–0
29' Camilo Durán Celtic · 0.38 xG chance 2–0
72' Colby Donovan (o.g.) Falkirk FC · 0.14 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Celtic: 58% What happened
Draw: 26%
Falkirk FC: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Celtic 1.81 2.87 +1.06

Falkirk FC 0.92 0.53 -0.39

Celtic produced 1.06 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Celtic Falkirk FC

Shots: 19; 6
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 13; 3
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.74; 0.68
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Celtic's shots add up to 2.85 xG and Falkirk FC's to 0.68; the published figures are 2.87 and 0.53.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.53 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Celtic
Falkirk FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Celtic

2.70 xG created 0.80 xGA

W 2.78 created, 0.38 conceded against Hibernian
W 1.04 created, 0.91 conceded against Rangers
W 1.37 created, 1.21 conceded against Motherwell
W 2.82 created, 0.96 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
W 2.55 created, 0.47 conceded against Dundee FC
W 5.64 created, 0.86 conceded against Kilmarnock

Falkirk FC

1.01 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.88 created, 1.06 conceded against Motherwell
L 0.48 created, 1.07 conceded against Hibernian
L 0.30 created, 0.59 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 2.26 created, 2.67 conceded against Rangers
L 0.71 created, 1.64 conceded against St. Mirren
D 0.44 created, 0.89 conceded against Motherwell

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Celtic: 4 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Celtic against Falkirk FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Celtic not to score	15.00	+110.6%	Lost
Falkirk FC to win	12.00	+88.9%	Lost
Celtic at most 1 goal	4.00	+75.9%	Lost
Draw	6.50	+71.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.20	+51.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+32.1%	Lost
Falkirk FC 2+ goals	5.00	+15.0%	Lost
Falkirk FC to score	1.73	+8.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.80	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celtic	57.9%	77.8%	−20.0 pp	1.73
Draw	26.4%	14.4%	+12.0 pp	3.79
Falkirk FC	15.7%	7.8%	+8.0 pp	6.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Celtic to score	86.0%	93.6%	−7.6 pp	1.16
Celtic not to score	14.0%	6.4%	+7.6 pp	7.12
Falkirk FC to score	63.0%	53.7%	+9.4 pp	1.59
Falkirk FC not to score	37.0%	46.3%	−9.4 pp	2.70
Both teams to score	55.7%	52.0%	+3.7 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.3%	48.0%	−3.7 pp	2.26
Celtic 2+ goals	56.0%	76.6%	−20.6 pp	1.79
Celtic at most 1 goal	44.0%	23.4%	+20.6 pp	2.27
Falkirk FC 2+ goals	23.0%	18.9%	+4.1 pp	4.35
Falkirk FC at most 1 goal	77.0%	81.1%	−4.1 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	79.7%	85.4%	−5.7 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.3%	14.6%	+5.7 pp	4.92
Over 2.5 goals	52.8%	70.1%	−17.3 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.2%	29.9%	+17.3 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Celtic sample: 20 matches
Falkirk FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.