Dundee United 0:2 Dundee FC: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:45

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Dundee United Home 1.23 xG · 23 shots

Dundee FC Away 1.68 xG · 14 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

Dundee United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Dundee FC won 2–0. The biggest difference was Dundee FC's attack: 1.68 xG against 1.22 projected (+0.46). Dundee United produced 1.23 xG against 1.51 projected (−0.28).

Goals

43' Drey Wright Dundee FC · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
57' Owen Bevan Dundee FC · 0.59 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dundee United: 42%
Draw: 30%
Dundee FC: 28% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dundee United 1.51 1.23 -0.28

Dundee FC 1.22 1.68 +0.46

Dundee FC produced 0.46 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dundee United Dundee FC

Shots: 23; 14
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.58; 0.76
Set-piece xG: 0.67; 0.87
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.24 for Dundee United and 1.61 for Dundee FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 2.88 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Dundee United
Dundee FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dundee United

1.04 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 1.82 created, 1.98 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 0.46 created, 1.78 conceded against Aberdeen
D 1.42 created, 0.89 conceded against Livingston
D 0.36 created, 1.00 conceded against St. Mirren
D 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against Rangers
L 0.54 created, 2.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian

Dundee FC

1.24 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 0.54 created, 0.60 conceded against St. Mirren
W 1.98 created, 1.52 conceded against Livingston
L 0.43 created, 3.38 conceded against Kilmarnock
W 1.78 created, 1.29 conceded against Aberdeen
L 0.47 created, 2.55 conceded against Celtic
W 2.22 created, 0.70 conceded against Aberdeen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dundee United: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dundee United against Dundee FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.67	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundee United	42.1%	42.7%	−0.5 pp	2.37
Draw	29.8%	28.4%	+1.4 pp	3.35
Dundee FC	28.1%	28.9%	−0.8 pp	3.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.8%	55.7%	+5.0 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.2%	44.3%	−5.0 pp	2.55
Over 1.5 goals	79.8%	76.2%	+3.6 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.2%	23.8%	−3.6 pp	4.95
Over 2.5 goals	52.7%	52.6%	+0.1 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.3%	47.4%	−0.1 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dundee United sample: 20 matches
Dundee FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.