xgEdge

Expected goals

Dundee United expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Dundee United's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Dundee United xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.56 xG per match
#5/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
10.89 7 matches
Defence
1.44 xGA per match
#4/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
10.11 7 matches
xG difference
+0.11 xGD per match
#5/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+0.78 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.43 xPts per match
#5/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
9.98 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Dundee United's underlying numbers sit close to the Scottish Premiership average. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.11 per match, driven by high shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 1.89 below 10.89 xG, while 8 points are 1.98 below 9.98 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.94 xG from penalties
9 10.89 -1.89 scored 1.89 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 10.11 +0.89 conceded 0.89 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 9.98 -1.98 1.98 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Dundee United are 1.89 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -3.37, against Falkirk FC on Sat 05/09.

Goals
9
xG
10.89
Gap
-1.89
Fri 31/07 Sun 09/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.64 -1.18 -2.41 -1.91 -2.10 -3.37 -1.89 -0.64 -0.54 -1.23 +0.50 -0.19 -1.27 +1.48 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Dundee United: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 31/07 Rangers 1 1.64 -0.64 -0.64
Sun 09/08 Heart of Midlothian 0 0.54 -0.54 -1.18
Sat 22/08 Dundee FC 0 1.23 -1.23 -2.41
Sat 29/08 Kilmarnock 4 3.50 +0.50 -1.91
Wed 02/09 Motherwell 0 0.19 -0.19 -2.10
Sat 05/09 Falkirk FC 1 2.27 -1.27 -3.37
Sat 19/09 St. Mirren 3 1.52 +1.48 -1.89

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Dundee United xG trend

Current form +0.08 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Motherwell on Wed 02/09 (-1.96).

npxG · last 6
1.39
npxGA · last 6
1.31
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.16 Fri 31/07 -0.82 Sun 09/08 -0.37 Sat 22/08 +1.56 Sat 29/08 -1.96 Wed 02/09 +1.41 Sat 05/09 +0.67 Sat 19/09 +0.09 season avg
Dundee United: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 31/07 Rangers 1.59 1.43 +0.16 +0.16
Sun 09/08 Heart of Midlothian 0.54 1.36 -0.82 -0.33
Sat 22/08 Dundee FC 1.24 1.61 -0.37 -0.34
Sat 29/08 Kilmarnock 2.59 1.03 +1.56 +0.13
Wed 02/09 Motherwell 0.19 2.15 -1.96 -0.29
Sat 05/09 Falkirk FC 2.28 0.87 +1.41 +0.00
Sat 19/09 St. Mirren 1.52 0.85 +0.67 +0.09

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.42 npxG and 1.33 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 7 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 10 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.23 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 7 hardest of 12

  1. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  2. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  3. Motherwell Away +0.05
  4. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  5. Dundee FC Home −0.48
  6. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.18
  7. Rangers Home +0.85

Last 5

−0.23 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 10 hardest of 12

  1. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  2. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  3. Motherwell Away +0.05
  4. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  5. Dundee FC Home −0.48

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Dundee United shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Dundee United take 15.9 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #5 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #7 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 39% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.9 shots per match
#5/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
111 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
9.95 npxG from 111 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.7 shots per match
#9/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
110 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#5/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
9.30 npxGA from 110 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 77 of 111 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 74 of 110 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

61% open play · 39% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 3.8 of 9.8 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.1 of 9.3 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Dundee United home and away xG

Dundee United per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.71 1.44
xGA / match 1.33 1.53
xGD / match +0.38 -0.09
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.63 1.27

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Dundee United match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.56
xGA / match
1.44
xGD / match
+0.11
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 St. Mirren A xG 1.52 xGA 0.85 xGD +0.67
  2. Sat 05/09 Falkirk FC H xG 2.27 xGA 0.85 xGD +1.42
  3. Wed 02/09 Motherwell A Weakest underlying xG 0.19 xGA 2.15 xGD -1.96
  4. Sat 29/08 Kilmarnock A Best underlying xG 3.50 P xGA 1.03 xGD +2.47
  5. Sat 22/08 Dundee FC H xG 1.23 xGA 1.68 xGD -0.45
  6. Sun 09/08 Heart of Midlothian A xG 0.54 xGA 2.09 P xGD -1.55
  7. Fri 31/07 Rangers H xG 1.64 xGA 1.46 xGD +0.18

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.50. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Dundee United in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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