Motherwell 3:0 Dundee United: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Motherwell Home 2.15 xG · 25 shots

Dundee United Away 0.19 xG · 5 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Motherwell were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Dundee United's attack: 0.19 xG against 1.14 projected (−0.95). Motherwell produced 2.15 xG against 1.64 projected (+0.51).

Goals

19' Sebastian Palmer-Houlden Motherwell · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
65' Alex Lowry Motherwell · 0.03 xG chance 2–0
67' Dylan Levitt Motherwell · 0.15 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Motherwell: 48% What happened
Draw: 29%
Dundee United: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Motherwell 1.64 2.15 +0.51

Dundee United 1.14 0.19 -0.95

Dundee United produced 0.95 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Motherwell Dundee United

Shots: 25; 5
On target: 8; 1
Inside the box: 16; 2
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.80; 0.13
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.06
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.15 for Motherwell.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.30 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Motherwell
Dundee United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Motherwell

1.29 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 0.45 created, 1.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 1.21 created, 1.37 conceded against Celtic
W 1.07 created, 0.70 conceded against Hibernian
W 2.00 created, 1.92 conceded against Hibernian
D 0.89 created, 0.44 conceded against Falkirk FC
D 2.11 created, 2.32 conceded against St. Mirren

Dundee United

1.45 xG created 1.36 xGA

D 1.42 created, 0.89 conceded against Livingston
D 0.36 created, 1.00 conceded against St. Mirren
D 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against Rangers
L 0.54 created, 2.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 1.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Dundee FC
W 3.50 created, 1.03 conceded against Kilmarnock

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Motherwell: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Motherwell against Dundee United before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.70	+5.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Motherwell	47.7%	47.3%	+0.3 pp	2.10
Draw	28.6%	25.6%	+3.0 pp	3.50
Dundee United	23.7%	27.1%	−3.3 pp	4.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Motherwell to score	83.1%	79.2%	+3.9 pp	1.20
Motherwell not to score	16.9%	20.8%	−3.9 pp	5.92
Dundee United to score	70.9%	70.9%	−0.0 pp	1.41
Dundee United not to score	29.1%	29.1%	+0.0 pp	3.43
Both teams to score	60.6%	57.7%	+2.9 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.4%	42.3%	−2.9 pp	2.53
Motherwell 2+ goals	50.5%	50.0%	+0.5 pp	1.98
Motherwell at most 1 goal	49.5%	50.0%	−0.5 pp	2.02
Dundee United 2+ goals	32.0%	35.5%	−3.5 pp	3.12
Dundee United at most 1 goal	68.0%	64.5%	+3.5 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	80.7%	78.0%	+2.7 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.3%	22.0%	−2.7 pp	5.17
Over 2.5 goals	54.2%	54.9%	−0.7 pp	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	45.8%	45.1%	+0.7 pp	2.18

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Motherwell sample: 20 matches
Dundee United sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.