St. Mirren 0:3 Dundee United: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

St. Mirren Home 0.85 xG · 10 shots

Dundee United Away 1.52 xG · 13 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

St. Mirren were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Dundee United won 3–0. The biggest difference was St. Mirren's attack: 0.85 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.61). Dundee United produced 1.52 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.35).

Goals

6' Jesse Randall Dundee United · 0.53 xG chance 0–1
12' Lyall Cameron Dundee United · 0.08 xG chance 0–2
45' Kevin Ciubotaru Dundee United · 0.24 xG chance 0–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

St. Mirren: 42%
Draw: 30%
Dundee United: 28% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

St. Mirren 1.46 0.85 -0.61

Dundee United 1.17 1.52 +0.35

St. Mirren produced 0.61 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

St. Mirren Dundee United

Shots: 10; 13
On target: 0; 9
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.73; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.24
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.52 for Dundee United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.32 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

St. Mirren
Dundee United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

St. Mirren

1.54 xG created 1.57 xGA

W 1.64 created, 0.71 conceded against Falkirk FC
W 1.36 created, 1.13 conceded against St. Johnstone
D 2.32 created, 2.11 conceded against Motherwell
W 1.09 created, 0.43 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 1.74 created, 2.93 conceded against Celtic
L 1.10 created, 2.13 conceded against Rangers

Dundee United

1.56 xG created 1.54 xGA

D 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against Rangers
L 0.54 created, 2.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 1.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Dundee FC
W 3.50 created, 1.03 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 0.19 created, 2.15 conceded against Motherwell
D 2.27 created, 0.85 conceded against Falkirk FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

St. Mirren: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on St. Mirren against Dundee United before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+15.0%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+9.4%	Lost
Dundee United at most 1 goal	1.62	+8.4%	Lost
Dundee United not to score	3.75	+6.5%	Lost
St. Mirren at most 1 goal	1.80	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Mirren	42.1%	40.5%	+1.6 pp	2.38
Draw	30.4%	26.4%	+4.0 pp	3.29
Dundee United	27.5%	33.1%	−5.6 pp	3.63

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Mirren to score	79.3%	78.3%	+1.0 pp	1.26
St. Mirren not to score	20.7%	21.7%	−1.0 pp	4.84
Dundee United to score	71.6%	75.0%	−3.4 pp	1.40
Dundee United not to score	28.4%	25.0%	+3.4 pp	3.52
Both teams to score	58.6%	60.8%	−2.2 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.4%	39.2%	+2.2 pp	2.42
St. Mirren 2+ goals	44.1%	48.5%	−4.5 pp	2.27
St. Mirren at most 1 goal	55.9%	51.5%	+4.5 pp	1.79
Dundee United 2+ goals	32.9%	42.3%	−9.4 pp	3.04
Dundee United at most 1 goal	67.1%	57.7%	+9.4 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	77.9%	78.9%	−1.0 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.1%	21.1%	+1.0 pp	4.52
Over 2.5 goals	50.0%	58.7%	−8.8 pp	2.00
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	41.3%	+8.8 pp	2.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
St. Mirren sample: 20 matches
Dundee United sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.