Scottish Premiership expected points table 2026/2027
Every Scottish Premiership club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Celtic lead on expected points with 16.44 over 7 matches with xG. That is 2.34 clear of Rangers. Dundee FC sit 4 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 4 against 8 on expected points. Hibernian sit 6 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 10 against 4 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic CEL | 7 | 18 | 16.44 | +1.56 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Rangers RAN | 7 | 16 | 14.10 | +1.90 | 2 | Same place as on expected points |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian HEA | 7 | 13 | 11.73 | +1.27 | 3 | Same place as on expected points |
| 4 | Hibernian HIB | 7 | 7 | 10.80 | −3.80 | 10 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Dundee United DUN | 7 | 8 | 9.98 | −1.98 | 8 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Motherwell MOT | 7 | 8 | 9.57 | −1.57 | 9 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | St. Mirren STM | 7 | 10 | 9.33 | +0.67 | 5 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Dundee FC DUN | 7 | 10 | 8.69 | +1.31 | 4 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | St. Johnstone STJ | 7 | 8 | 8.37 | −0.37 | 6 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Aberdeen ABE | 7 | 8 | 6.71 | +1.29 | 7 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Falkirk FC FAL | 7 | 6 | 5.99 | +0.01 | 11 | Same place as on expected points |
| 12 | Kilmarnock KIL | 7 | 5 | 4.99 | +0.01 | 12 | Same place as on expected points |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.