xgEdge

Expected goals

Atalanta expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Serie A · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Atalanta's attacking and defensive expected goals in Serie A 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Atalanta xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.81 xG per match
#19/20
Attack (xG per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Inter 2.90
#2 Roma 2.56
#3 Como 1.89
#4 Monza 1.79
#5 Sassuolo 1.73
#6 Fiorentina 1.72
#7 Milan 1.58
#8 Juventus 1.55
#9 Lazio 1.55
#10 Frosinone 1.51
#11 Venezia 1.49
#12 Napoli 1.44
#13 Udinese 1.40
#14 Bologna 1.18
#15 Cagliari 1.09
#16 Lecce 1.06
#17 Torino 1.03
#18 Genoa 0.89
#19 Atalanta 0.81
#20 Parma 0.68
League avg
1.49
Total
4.07 5 matches
Defence
1.87 xGA per match
#17/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Juventus 0.48
#2 Bologna 0.95
#3 Monza 1.06
#4 Roma 1.11
#5 Milan 1.18
#6 Lazio 1.24
=7 Genoa 1.33
=7 Sassuolo 1.33
#9 Fiorentina 1.33
#10 Inter 1.34
#11 Napoli 1.40
#12 Como 1.53
#13 Parma 1.58
#14 Torino 1.69
#15 Cagliari 1.76
#16 Udinese 1.84
#17 Atalanta 1.87
#18 Frosinone 2.10
#19 Venezia 2.35
#20 Lecce 2.38
League avg
1.49
Total
9.35 5 matches
xG difference
-1.06 xGD per match
#19/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter +1.55
#2 Roma +1.45
#3 Juventus +1.07
#4 Monza +0.73
#5 Sassuolo +0.41
#6 Milan +0.40
#7 Fiorentina +0.39
#8 Como +0.36
#9 Lazio +0.30
#10 Bologna +0.24
#11 Napoli +0.03
=12 Genoa -0.44
=12 Udinese -0.44
#14 Frosinone -0.59
#15 Torino -0.66
#16 Cagliari -0.66
#17 Venezia -0.87
#18 Parma -0.90
#19 Atalanta -1.06
#20 Lecce -1.32
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.28 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.67 xPts per match
#19/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Roma 2.23
#2 Juventus 2.23
#3 Inter 2.21
#4 Monza 1.89
#5 Fiorentina 1.69
#6 Milan 1.63
#7 Sassuolo 1.63
#8 Lazio 1.62
#9 Como 1.60
#10 Bologna 1.55
#11 Napoli 1.50
#12 Udinese 1.13
#13 Cagliari 1.11
#14 Genoa 1.00
#15 Frosinone 0.98
#16 Venezia 0.93
#17 Torino 0.88
#18 Parma 0.70
#19 Atalanta 0.67
#20 Lecce 0.60
League avg
1.39
Total
3.34 vs 6 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Atalanta's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Serie A. They rank #19 for xG difference at -1.06 per match, from low shot volume and the league's lowest chance quality. Their 5 goals are 0.93 above 4.07 xG, while 6 points are 2.66 above 3.34 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.56 xG from penalties
5 4.07 +0.93 scored 0.93 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 9.35 -2.35 conceded 2.35 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
6 3.34 +2.66 2.66 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Atalanta are 0.93 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +2.27, against Roma on Sat 05/09.

Goals
5
xG
4.07
Gap
+0.93
Sun 23/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.12 +1.97 +2.27 +1.53 +0.93 +1.12 +0.85 +0.30 -0.74 -0.60 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Atalanta: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 23/08 Sassuolo 2 0.88 +1.12 +1.12
Mon 31/08 Bologna 1 0.15 +0.85 +1.97
Sat 05/09 Roma 1 0.70 +0.30 +2.27
Sat 12/09 Cagliari 1 1.74 -0.74 +1.53
Sun 20/09 Juventus 0 0.60 -0.60 +0.93

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Atalanta xG trend

Current form -1.08 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 5 matches. The worst was against Roma on Sat 05/09 (-2.47).

npxG · last 5
0.70
npxGA · last 5
1.79
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -2.01 Sun 23/08 -1.19 Mon 31/08 -2.47 Sat 05/09 +0.95 Sat 12/09 -0.70 Sun 20/09 -1.08 season avg
Atalanta: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 23/08 Sassuolo 0.71 2.72 -2.01 -2.01
Mon 31/08 Bologna 0.16 1.35 -1.19 -1.60
Sat 05/09 Roma 0.77 3.24 -2.47 -1.89
Sat 12/09 Cagliari 1.26 0.31 +0.95 -1.18
Sun 20/09 Juventus 0.61 1.31 -0.70 -1.08

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.70 npxG and 1.79 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 20 in Serie A
+0.17 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.17 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 20

  1. Juventus Away +0.58
  2. Cagliari Home −0.42
  3. Roma Away +0.62
  4. Bologna Home +0.05
  5. Sassuolo Home +0.01

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Atalanta shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Atalanta take 11.8 shots a match (league 14.6) at 0.06 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =15 in Serie A for volume and #20 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 12% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.8 shots per match
=15/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Como 23.4
#2 Inter 23.2
#3 Roma 20.6
#4 Juventus 17.6
#5 Sassuolo 17.2
=6 Fiorentina 16.8
=6 Frosinone 16.8
#8 Monza 14.4
#9 Udinese 14.2
#10 Venezia 14.0
#11 Napoli 13.8
#12 Bologna 13.4
=13 Lazio 12.8
=13 Milan 12.8
=15 Atalanta 11.8
=15 Genoa 11.8
#17 Cagliari 10.8
#18 Torino 9.4
#19 Lecce 8.4
#20 Parma 8.2
League avg
14.6
Total
59 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.06 npxG per shot
#20/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Roma 0.13
#2 Inter 0.12
#3 Monza 0.11
#4 Napoli 0.11
#5 Lecce 0.11
#6 Milan 0.11
#7 Lazio 0.11
#8 Venezia 0.10
#9 Fiorentina 0.10
#10 Torino 0.09
#11 Sassuolo 0.09
#12 Bologna 0.09
#13 Juventus 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.09
#15 Frosinone 0.09
#16 Como 0.08
#17 Parma 0.08
#18 Cagliari 0.08
#19 Genoa 0.06
#20 Atalanta 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
3.51 npxG from 59 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.2 shots per match
#18/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Juventus 7.8
#2 Milan 9.0
#3 Roma 9.2
#4 Inter 11.4
=5 Bologna 11.8
=5 Fiorentina 11.8
=5 Monza 11.8
#8 Lazio 13.0
#9 Venezia 14.4
#10 Como 15.0
#11 Torino 15.4
=12 Genoa 15.8
=12 Sassuolo 15.8
=14 Lecce 16.6
=14 Napoli 16.6
#16 Udinese 17.2
#17 Parma 18.4
#18 Atalanta 19.2
#19 Cagliari 20.4
#20 Frosinone 20.8
League avg
14.6
Total
96 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#13/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Serie A, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Juventus 0.06
#2 Sassuolo 0.07
#3 Napoli 0.07
#4 Genoa 0.08
#5 Cagliari 0.08
#6 Bologna 0.08
#7 Lazio 0.08
#8 Frosinone 0.09
#9 Torino 0.09
#10 Como 0.09
#11 Monza 0.09
#12 Parma 0.09
#13 Atalanta 0.09
#14 Udinese 0.11
#15 Roma 0.11
#16 Inter 0.11
#17 Fiorentina 0.11
#18 Milan 0.13
#19 Lecce 0.14
#20 Venezia 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
8.93 npxGA from 96 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 37 of 59 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 63 of 96 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

88% open play · 12% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 0.4 of 3.5 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 1.9 of 8.9 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Atalanta home and away xG

Atalanta per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 0.92 0.65
xGA / match 1.69 2.14
xGD / match -0.77 -1.49
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.81 0.45

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Atalanta match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
0.81
xGA / match
1.87
xGD / match
-1.06
Points
6 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 Juventus A xG 0.60 xGA 1.31 xGD -0.71
  2. Sat 12/09 Cagliari H Best underlying xG 1.74 xGA 1.32 P xGD +0.42
  3. Sat 05/09 Roma A Weakest underlying xG 0.70 xGA 2.97 xGD -2.27
  4. Mon 31/08 Bologna H xG 0.15 xGA 1.05 xGD -0.90
  5. Sun 23/08 Sassuolo H Against the chances xG 0.88 xGA 2.70 xGD -1.82

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Atalanta in Serie A

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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