Bologna 2:2 Sassuolo: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Bologna Home 1.88 xG · 21 shots

Sassuolo Away 1.62 xG · 15 shots

22 Bologna had the better chances, but it finished level

Bologna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Sassuolo's attack: 1.62 xG against 0.87 projected (+0.75). Bologna produced 1.88 xG against 1.31 projected (+0.57).

Goals

19' Josh Doig Sassuolo · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
50' Roberto Piccoli Bologna · 0.12 xG chance 1–1
56' Vasilije Adžić Sassuolo · 0.42 xG chance 1–2
90' Artem Dovbyk Bologna · 0.41 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bologna: 45%
Draw: 33% What happened
Sassuolo: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bologna 1.31 1.88 +0.57

Sassuolo 0.87 1.62 +0.75

Sassuolo produced 0.75 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bologna Sassuolo

Shots: 21; 15
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 14; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.60; 1.07
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.34
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.94 for Bologna and 1.40 for Sassuolo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.32 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Bologna
Sassuolo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bologna

1.12 xG created 0.87 xGA

D 0.53 created, 1.07 conceded against Cagliari
W 1.26 created, 0.80 conceded against Napoli
W 0.69 created, 0.76 conceded against Atalanta
D 1.40 created, 1.78 conceded against Inter
L 1.78 created, 0.63 conceded against Lazio
L 1.05 created, 0.15 conceded against Atalanta

Sassuolo

1.96 xG created 1.34 xGA

W 1.58 created, 0.24 conceded against Milan
L 2.24 created, 3.26 conceded against Torino
L 2.45 created, 1.26 conceded against Lecce
L 0.91 created, 1.12 conceded against Parma
L 2.70 created, 0.88 conceded against Atalanta
W 1.85 created, 1.26 conceded against Torino

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bologna: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bologna against Sassuolo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+19.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+19.0%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+18.1%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.00	+3.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bologna	45.2%	49.0%	−3.8 pp	2.21
Draw	32.8%	26.5%	+6.3 pp	3.05
Sassuolo	22.0%	24.5%	−2.5 pp	4.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	48.1%	53.3%	−5.2 pp	2.08
Both teams not to score	51.9%	46.7%	+5.2 pp	1.93
Over 1.5 goals	68.3%	74.5%	−6.2 pp	1.46
Under 1.5 goals	31.7%	25.5%	+6.2 pp	3.15
Over 2.5 goals	37.5%	50.0%	−12.5 pp	2.66
Under 2.5 goals	62.5%	50.0%	+12.5 pp	1.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bologna sample: 20 matches
Sassuolo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.