Fiorentina 1:2 Torino: xG & match report · Serie A

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Fiorentina Home 1.67 xG · 14 shots

Torino Away 0.58 xG · 7 shots

12 The result went against the chances

Fiorentina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Torino won 2–1. The biggest difference was Torino's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.55).

Goals

47' Mateo Pellegrino Fiorentina · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
74' Rolando Mandragora Torino · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
82' Che Adams Torino · 0.31 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fiorentina: 42%
Draw: 31%
Torino: 27% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fiorentina 1.43 1.67 +0.24

Torino 1.13 0.58 -0.55

Torino produced 0.55 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fiorentina Torino

Shots: 14; 7
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 10; 3
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.50; 0.49
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.61 for Fiorentina and 0.63 for Torino.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.24 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fiorentina
Torino
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fiorentina

0.82 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.14 created, 2.24 conceded against Roma
D 1.00 created, 0.50 conceded against Genoa
W 0.47 created, 1.98 conceded against Juventus
D 0.85 created, 1.38 conceded against Atalanta
L 0.35 created, 3.07 conceded against Roma
L 2.13 created, 1.11 conceded against Frosinone

Torino

1.41 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 0.83 created, 2.00 conceded against Udinese
W 3.26 created, 2.24 conceded against Sassuolo
L 0.99 created, 1.32 conceded against Cagliari
D 0.85 created, 1.92 conceded against Juventus
L 1.29 created, 2.15 conceded against Milan
L 1.26 created, 1.85 conceded against Sassuolo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fiorentina: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fiorentina against Torino before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Torino to win	3.70	+17.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+11.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+4.3%	Won
Draw	3.20	+1.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fiorentina	42.1%	45.0%	−2.9 pp	2.37
Draw	30.8%	29.5%	+1.3 pp	3.25
Torino	27.1%	25.5%	+1.6 pp	3.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.0%	53.3%	+3.7 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	43.0%	46.7%	−3.7 pp	2.33
Over 1.5 goals	76.5%	71.8%	+4.6 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.5%	28.2%	−4.6 pp	4.25
Over 2.5 goals	48.0%	47.4%	+0.6 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	52.0%	52.6%	−0.6 pp	1.92

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fiorentina sample: 20 matches
Torino sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 minute before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.