Frosinone 3:2 Venezia: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Serie A

Frosinone Home 1.90 xG · 13 shots

Venezia Away 2.17 xG · 15 shots

32 The result went against the chances

Frosinone were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Venezia's attack: 2.17 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.87). Frosinone produced 1.90 xG against 1.52 projected (+0.38).

Goals

21' Antonio Raimondo Frosinone · 0.11 xG chance 1–0
39' Antonio Raimondo Frosinone · 0.89 xG chance 2–0
66' John Yeboah Venezia · 0.16 xG chance 2–1
74' Richie Sagrado Venezia · 0.91 xG chance 2–2
83' Giorgi Kvernadze Frosinone · 0.34 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Frosinone: 41% What happened
Draw: 29%
Venezia: 30%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Frosinone 1.52 1.90 +0.38

Venezia 1.30 2.17 +0.87

Venezia produced 0.87 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Frosinone Venezia

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.70; 1.70
Set-piece xG: 0.96; 0.45
Penalties: —; —

Frosinone's shots add up to 1.66 xG and Venezia's to 2.15; the published figures are 1.90 and 2.17.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.81 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Frosinone
Venezia
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Frosinone

0.76 xG created 2.16 xGA

L 0.41 created, 2.18 conceded against Juventus
W 1.11 created, 2.13 conceded against Fiorentina

Venezia

1.42 xG created 2.46 xGA

L 2.05 created, 2.70 conceded against Lecce
L 0.80 created, 2.21 conceded against Milan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Frosinone against Venezia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+6.8%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+2.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Frosinone	40.5%	38.4%	+2.2 pp	2.47
Draw	29.4%	26.8%	+2.5 pp	3.40
Venezia	30.1%	34.8%	−4.7 pp	3.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.6%	62.5%	+0.1 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	37.5%	−0.1 pp	2.67
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	81.1%	+0.2 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	18.9%	−0.2 pp	5.34
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	60.2%	−5.1 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	39.8%	+5.1 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Frosinone sample: 2 matches
Venezia sample: 2 matches
Computed: 48 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 48 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

Frosinone has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Venezia has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.