Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeMilan 2:0 Venezia
Milan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Milan's attack: 2.21 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.62). Venezia produced 0.80 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.26).
Goals
- 69' Gonçalo Ramos Milan · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 89' Redouane Halhal (o.g.) Milan · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Milan
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Venezia
- 23%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Milan produced 0.62 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 9
- On target
- 6
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.43
- 0.70
- Set-piece xG
- 0.77
- 0.12
- Penalties
- —
- —
Milan's shots add up to 2.20 xG and Venezia's to 0.82; the published figures are 2.21 and 0.80.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Milan
- Venezia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.46 xG created 1.48 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to win | 7.00 | +58.0% | Lost |
| Venezia 2+ goals | 5.00 | +44.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +31.7% | Lost |
| Venezia to score | 1.73 | +18.2% | Lost |
| Milan not to score | 6.50 | +16.9% | Lost |
| Milan at most 1 goal | 2.25 | +15.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +12.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | 48.2% | 65.4% | −17.2 pp | 2.08 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.1% | +8.2 pp | 3.42 |
| Venezia | 22.6% | 13.5% | +9.0 pp | 4.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan to score | 82.0% | 85.4% | −3.4 pp | 1.22 |
| Milan not to score | 18.0% | 14.6% | +3.4 pp | 5.56 |
| Venezia to score | 68.5% | 53.7% | +14.8 pp | 1.46 |
| Venezia not to score | 31.6% | 46.3% | −14.8 pp | 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 48.0% | +9.9 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 52.0% | −9.9 pp | 2.37 |
| Milan 2+ goals | 48.6% | 58.9% | −10.3 pp | 2.06 |
| Milan at most 1 goal | 51.4% | 41.1% | +10.3 pp | 1.95 |
| Venezia 2+ goals | 28.9% | 18.9% | +10.0 pp | 3.46 |
| Venezia at most 1 goal | 71.1% | 81.1% | −10.0 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | 78.0% | +0.4 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 22.0% | −0.4 pp | 4.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 54.9% | −4.1 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 45.1% | +4.1 pp | 2.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Milan sample
- 20 matches
- Venezia sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Venezia has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.