Milan 2:3 Atalanta: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 10/05/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Milan Home 2.21 xG · 20 shots

Atalanta Away 1.38 xG · 9 shots

23 The result went against the chances

Goals

7' Éderson Atalanta · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
29' Davide Zappacosta Atalanta · 0.42 xG chance 0–2
51' Giacomo Raspadori Atalanta · 0.05 xG chance 0–3
88' Strahinja Pavlović Milan · 0.16 xG chance 1–3
90' Christopher Nkunku (pen.) Milan · 0.82 xG chance 2–3

The shots behind it

Milan Atalanta

Shots: 20; 9
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.94; 1.08
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.01
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Milan and 1.08 for Atalanta.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.07 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Milan
Atalanta
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Milan

0.90 xG created 1.16 xGA

W 1.43 created, 2.22 conceded against Torino
L 0.47 created, 0.75 conceded against Napoli
L 1.78 created, 1.19 conceded against Udinese
W 0.85 created, 0.71 conceded against Hellas Verona
D 0.65 created, 0.52 conceded against Juventus
L 0.24 created, 1.58 conceded against Sassuolo

Atalanta

1.45 xG created 0.87 xGA

W 1.02 created, 1.11 conceded against Hellas Verona
W 2.20 created, 0.33 conceded against Lecce
L 1.68 created, 0.61 conceded against Juventus
D 0.68 created, 1.07 conceded against Roma
L 1.18 created, 1.56 conceded against Cagliari
D 1.96 created, 0.52 conceded against Genoa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Milan: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Atalanta 1:1 Milan 28/10/2025 xG 1.34 – 0.36

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.