AEK Athens 4:0 Iraklis 1908: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

AEK Athens Home 2.06 xG · 25 shots

Iraklis 1908 Away 0.38 xG · 7 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

AEK Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Iraklis 1908's attack: 0.38 xG against 0.76 projected (−0.38). AEK Athens produced 2.06 xG against 1.78 projected (+0.28).

Goals

11' Barnabás Varga AEK Athens · 0.36 xG chance 1–0
19' Luka Jović AEK Athens · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
49' Luka Jović AEK Athens · 0.05 xG chance 3–0
75' Zini AEK Athens · 0.29 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AEK Athens: 61% What happened
Draw: 26%
Iraklis 1908: 13%

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AEK Athens 1.78 2.06 +0.28

Iraklis 1908 0.76 0.38 -0.38

Iraklis 1908 produced 0.38 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AEK Athens Iraklis 1908

Shots: 25; 7
On target: 11; 1
Inside the box: 12; 3
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.70; 0.33
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.08 for AEK Athens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.41 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AEK Athens
Iraklis 1908
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AEK Athens

1.46 xG created 0.74 xGA

W 0.32 created, 0.22 conceded against Olympiacos FC
W 2.29 created, 0.57 conceded against PAOK
D 2.19 created, 1.21 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.16 created, 0.45 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 1.02 created, 1.35 conceded against PAOK
D 0.78 created, 0.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC

Iraklis 1908

No match with expected goals behind it yet.

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AEK Athens against Iraklis 1908 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	6.50	+68.9%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 to win	13.00	+63.4%	Lost
AEK Athens not to score	11.00	+59.8%	Lost
AEK Athens at most 1 goal	3.50	+57.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+31.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+25.3%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	7.00	+17.9%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 to score	2.00	+12.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.20	+9.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Athens	61.5%	78.3%	−16.9 pp	1.63
Draw	26.0%	14.5%	+11.5 pp	3.85
Iraklis 1908	12.6%	7.2%	+5.3 pp	7.96

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AEK Athens to score	85.5%	91.3%	−5.8 pp	1.17
AEK Athens not to score	14.5%	8.7%	+5.8 pp	6.88
Iraklis 1908 to score	56.1%	46.3%	+9.8 pp	1.78
Iraklis 1908 not to score	43.9%	53.7%	−9.8 pp	2.28
Both teams to score	49.5%	42.3%	+7.2 pp	2.02
Both teams not to score	50.5%	57.7%	−7.2 pp	1.98
AEK Athens 2+ goals	55.1%	73.1%	−18.1 pp	1.82
AEK Athens at most 1 goal	44.9%	26.9%	+18.1 pp	2.23
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	16.8%	13.6%	+3.3 pp	5.94
Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal	83.2%	86.4%	−3.3 pp	1.20
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	82.8%	−6.7 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	17.2%	+6.7 pp	4.19
Over 2.5 goals	47.8%	61.0%	−13.2 pp	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	52.2%	39.0%	+13.2 pp	1.92

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AEK Athens sample: 20 matches
Iraklis 1908 sample: 0 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for Iraklis 1908 — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.