NPS Volos 1:1 Iraklis 1908: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Super League Greece

NPS Volos Home 1.19 xG · 17 shots

Iraklis 1908 Away 0.48 xG · 10 shots

11 NPS Volos had the better chances, but it finished level

NPS Volos were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 34%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Iraklis 1908's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.68).

Goals

27' Nanú Iraklis 1908 · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
84' Matías González NPS Volos · 0.03 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NPS Volos: 34%
Draw: 33% What happened
Iraklis 1908: 33%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NPS Volos 1.18 1.19 +0.01

Iraklis 1908 1.16 0.48 -0.68

Iraklis 1908 produced 0.68 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NPS Volos Iraklis 1908

Shots: 17; 10
On target: 3; 1
Inside the box: 12; 3
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.14
Set-piece xG: 0.16; 0.34
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.19 for NPS Volos.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 1.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NPS Volos
Iraklis 1908
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NPS Volos

1.01 xG created 2.19 xGA

L 0.49 created, 1.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 2.35 created, 4.71 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.54 created, 2.17 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.34 created, 1.79 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.91 created, 1.40 conceded against OFI Crete

Iraklis 1908

0.38 xG created 2.06 xGA

L 0.38 created, 2.06 conceded against AEK Athens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NPS Volos against Iraklis 1908 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Iraklis 1908 to win	4.10	+35.5%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	3.75	+23.0%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+14.9%	Won
NPS Volos at most 1 goal	1.73	+14.7%	Won
NPS Volos not to score	4.00	+11.2%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 to score	1.53	+9.7%	Won
Both teams to score	1.95	+4.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NPS Volos	34.1%	49.8%	−15.7 pp	2.93
Draw	32.8%	27.1%	+5.8 pp	3.05
Iraklis 1908	33.1%	23.1%	+10.0 pp	3.02

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NPS Volos to score	72.2%	76.6%	−4.4 pp	1.39
NPS Volos not to score	27.8%	23.4%	+4.4 pp	3.60
Iraklis 1908 to score	71.5%	60.8%	+10.8 pp	1.40
Iraklis 1908 not to score	28.5%	39.2%	−10.8 pp	3.51
Both teams to score	53.6%	48.0%	+5.6 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.4%	52.0%	−5.6 pp	2.15
NPS Volos 2+ goals	33.6%	46.3%	−12.7 pp	2.98
NPS Volos at most 1 goal	66.4%	53.7%	+12.7 pp	1.51
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	32.8%	25.0%	+7.8 pp	3.05
Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal	67.2%	75.0%	−7.8 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	72.3%	68.7%	+3.5 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.7%	31.3%	−3.5 pp	3.61
Over 2.5 goals	42.3%	43.7%	−1.4 pp	2.36
Under 2.5 goals	57.7%	56.3%	+1.4 pp	1.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NPS Volos sample: 20 matches
Iraklis 1908 sample: 1 match
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Iraklis 1908 has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.