Olympiacos FC 1:0 Atromitos Athens: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Super League Greece

Olympiacos FC Home 3.17 xG · 26 shots

Atromitos Athens Away 0.30 xG · 8 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympiacos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Olympiacos FC's attack: 3.17 xG against 1.93 projected (+1.24). Atromitos Athens produced 0.30 xG against 0.62 projected (−0.32).

Goals

82' David Carmo Olympiacos FC · 0.05 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Olympiacos FC: 69% What happened
Draw: 23%
Atromitos Athens: 8%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Olympiacos FC 1.93 3.17 +1.24

Atromitos Athens 0.62 0.30 -0.32

Olympiacos FC produced 1.24 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Olympiacos FC Atromitos Athens

Shots: 26; 8
On target: 10; 1
Inside the box: 22; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.04
Open play xG: 2.03; 0.18
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.11
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.39 for Olympiacos FC and 0.30 for Atromitos Athens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.51 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Olympiacos FC
Atromitos Athens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Olympiacos FC

1.49 xG created 0.81 xGA

L 0.22 created, 0.32 conceded against AEK Athens
W 1.54 created, 0.87 conceded against Panathinaikos
L 2.28 created, 1.95 conceded against PAOK
D 2.19 created, 0.73 conceded against PAOK
W 2.07 created, 0.22 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 0.62 created, 0.78 conceded against AEK Athens

Atromitos Athens

1.63 xG created 1.42 xGA

W 1.17 created, 1.24 conceded against Asteras Aktor
L 1.46 created, 3.22 conceded against Asteras Aktor
L 0.95 created, 1.08 conceded against Panetolikos
W 1.61 created, 1.29 conceded against AE Kifisia
L 1.88 created, 1.37 conceded against AE Larisa
W 2.71 created, 0.29 conceded against MGS Panserraikos

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Olympiacos FC: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Olympiacos FC against Atromitos Athens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.50	+25.3%	Lost
Olympiacos FC not to score	9.00	+11.1%	Lost
Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal	2.75	+11.0%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+8.9%	Won
Atromitos Athens to score	2.10	+3.2%	Lost
Atromitos Athens to win	12.00	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympiacos FC	68.9%	75.1%	−6.3 pp	1.45
Draw	22.8%	17.1%	+5.7 pp	4.39
Atromitos Athens	8.4%	7.8%	+0.5 pp	11.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Olympiacos FC to score	87.7%	89.4%	−1.7 pp	1.14
Olympiacos FC not to score	12.3%	10.6%	+1.7 pp	8.10
Atromitos Athens to score	49.1%	44.3%	+4.9 pp	2.04
Atromitos Athens not to score	50.9%	55.7%	−4.9 pp	1.97
Both teams to score	44.4%	41.1%	+3.3 pp	2.25
Both teams not to score	55.6%	58.9%	−3.3 pp	1.80
Olympiacos FC 2+ goals	59.6%	66.3%	−6.6 pp	1.68
Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal	40.4%	33.7%	+6.6 pp	2.48
Atromitos Athens 2+ goals	11.7%	11.9%	−0.3 pp	8.57
Atromitos Athens at most 1 goal	88.3%	88.1%	+0.3 pp	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	76.6%	−0.4 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	23.4%	+0.4 pp	4.20
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	55.3%	−7.1 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	44.7%	+7.1 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Olympiacos FC sample: 20 matches
Atromitos Athens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.