PAOK 2:0 Aris Thessaloniki: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

PAOK Home 2.39 xG · 13 shots

Aris Thessaloniki Away 1.24 xG · 15 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

PAOK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was PAOK's attack: 2.39 xG against 1.61 projected (+0.78).

Goals

32' Cherif Ndiaye (pen.) PAOK · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
42' Andrija Živković PAOK · 0.70 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PAOK: 50% What happened
Draw: 29%
Aris Thessaloniki: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PAOK 1.61 2.39 +0.78

Aris Thessaloniki 1.00 1.24 +0.24

PAOK produced 0.78 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PAOK Aris Thessaloniki

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 11
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.64; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.75
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.63 for PAOK and 1.29 for Aris Thessaloniki.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

PAOK
Aris Thessaloniki
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PAOK

1.58 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 0.73 created, 2.19 conceded against Olympiacos FC
D 1.35 created, 1.02 conceded against AEK Athens
D 2.63 created, 1.61 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.15 created, 0.57 conceded against APO Levadiakos
W 1.61 created, 1.33 conceded against Atromitos Athens
L 1.02 created, 2.72 conceded against Panathinaikos

Aris Thessaloniki

1.61 xG created 1.53 xGA

W 1.76 created, 1.53 conceded against OFI Crete
W 1.40 created, 0.42 conceded against NPS Volos
W 1.64 created, 0.97 conceded against APO Levadiakos
W 2.69 created, 1.41 conceded against PS Kalamata
W 1.75 created, 1.34 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.40 created, 3.53 conceded against AEK Athens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

PAOK: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PAOK against Aris Thessaloniki before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.10	+18.9%	Lost
Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals	4.50	+17.9%	Lost
Aris Thessaloniki to score	1.67	+9.8%	Lost
Aris Thessaloniki to win	5.25	+7.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+6.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+3.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PAOK	50.5%	59.0%	−8.5 pp	1.98
Draw	29.0%	23.0%	+6.0 pp	3.45
Aris Thessaloniki	20.5%	18.0%	+2.6 pp	4.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PAOK to score	82.4%	81.1%	+1.3 pp	1.21
PAOK not to score	17.6%	18.9%	−1.3 pp	5.68
Aris Thessaloniki to score	65.9%	55.7%	+10.1 pp	1.52
Aris Thessaloniki not to score	34.1%	44.3%	−10.1 pp	2.93
Both teams to score	56.0%	50.0%	+6.0 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.0%	50.0%	−6.0 pp	2.27
PAOK 2+ goals	49.3%	51.5%	−2.2 pp	2.03
PAOK at most 1 goal	50.7%	48.5%	+2.2 pp	1.97
Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals	26.2%	20.8%	+5.4 pp	3.82
Aris Thessaloniki at most 1 goal	73.8%	79.2%	−5.4 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	70.9%	+6.5 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	29.1%	−6.5 pp	4.43
Over 2.5 goals	49.4%	47.4%	+2.1 pp	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	50.6%	52.6%	−2.1 pp	1.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PAOK sample: 20 matches
Aris Thessaloniki sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.