xgEdge

Expected goals

Aris Thessaloniki expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Super League Greece · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Aris Thessaloniki's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Aris Thessaloniki xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.52 xG per match
#5/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Panathinaikos 2.13
#2 AEK Athens 2.02
#3 PAOK 1.85
#4 Olympiacos FC 1.81
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.52
#6 AE Kifisia 1.33
#7 PS Kalamata 1.26
#8 Asteras Aktor 1.04
#9 OFI Crete 1.04
#10 NPS Volos 0.93
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.91
#12 Panetolikos 0.89
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.62
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.57
League avg
1.27
Total
7.62 5 matches
Defence
1.81 xGA per match
#14/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.56
#2 AE Kifisia 0.70
#3 Panathinaikos 0.81
#4 AEK Athens 0.95
#5 OFI Crete 1.18
#6 PAOK 1.20
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.24
#8 APO Levadiakos 1.41
#9 Iraklis 1908 1.45
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.53
#11 NPS Volos 1.53
#12 PS Kalamata 1.57
#13 Panetolikos 1.59
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 1.81
League avg
1.27
Total
9.04 5 matches
xG difference
-0.28 xGD per match
#8/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Panathinaikos +1.31
#2 Olympiacos FC +1.25
#3 AEK Athens +1.07
#4 PAOK +0.65
#5 AE Kifisia +0.63
#6 OFI Crete -0.14
#7 Asteras Aktor -0.20
#8 Aris Thessaloniki -0.28
#9 PS Kalamata -0.31
#10 NPS Volos -0.60
#11 Atromitos Athens -0.62
#12 Panetolikos -0.70
#13 APO Levadiakos -0.79
#14 Iraklis 1908 -0.88
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.42 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.39 xPts per match
#6/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.25
#2 Panathinaikos 2.17
#3 AEK Athens 1.96
#4 AE Kifisia 1.92
#5 PAOK 1.88
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.39
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.22
#8 OFI Crete 1.22
#9 PS Kalamata 1.20
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.02
#11 Panetolikos 1.02
#12 NPS Volos 0.94
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.71
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
6.95 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Aris Thessaloniki's underlying numbers sit close to the Super League Greece average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.28 per match, built on high shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 5 goals are 2.62 below 7.62 xG, while 7 points are 0.05 above 6.95 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.52 xG from penalties
5 7.62 -2.62 scored 2.62 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 9.04 +0.96 conceded 0.96 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 6.95 +0.05 0.05 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Aris Thessaloniki are 2.62 goals below their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
5
xG
7.62
Gap
-2.62
Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.31 +0.56 +0.16 -1.08 -2.62 +0.31 +0.25 -0.40 -1.24 -1.54 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Aris Thessaloniki: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 PS Kalamata 3 2.69 +0.31 +0.31
Sun 30/08 OFI Crete 2 1.75 +0.25 +0.56
Sat 05/09 AEK Athens 0 0.40 -0.40 +0.16
Sun 13/09 PAOK 0 1.24 -1.24 -1.08
Sat 19/09 Iraklis 1908 0 1.54 -1.54 -2.62

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Aris Thessaloniki xG trend

Current form -0.44 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches. The worst was against AEK Athens on Sat 05/09 (-3.14).

npxG · last 5
1.22
npxGA · last 5
1.66
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.50 Sat 22/08 -0.40 Sun 30/08 -3.14 Sat 05/09 -0.34 Sun 13/09 +1.17 Sat 19/09 -0.44 season avg
Aris Thessaloniki: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 PS Kalamata 1.91 1.41 +0.50 +0.50
Sun 30/08 OFI Crete 0.96 1.36 -0.40 +0.05
Sat 05/09 AEK Athens 0.40 3.54 -3.14 -1.01
Sun 13/09 PAOK 1.29 1.63 -0.34 -0.85
Sat 19/09 Iraklis 1908 1.54 0.37 +1.17 -0.44

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.22 npxG and 1.66 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 8 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 14

  1. Iraklis 1908 Home −0.35
  2. PAOK Away +0.22
  3. AEK Athens Away +0.61
  4. OFI Crete Home −0.22
  5. PS Kalamata Away −0.21

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Aris Thessaloniki shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Aris Thessaloniki take 16.2 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #4 in Super League Greece for volume and #11 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 46% of their npxG (league 23%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.2 shots per match
#4/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 19.2
#2 Panathinaikos 18.0
#3 AEK Athens 17.2
#4 Aris Thessaloniki 16.2
#5 PAOK 12.2
=6 Asteras Aktor 11.6
=6 Atromitos Athens 11.6
=6 PS Kalamata 11.6
#9 AE Kifisia 11.5
#10 NPS Volos 11.2
#11 OFI Crete 10.8
#12 APO Levadiakos 9.2
#13 Panetolikos 8.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 7.8
League avg
12.5
Total
81 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#11/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Panetolikos 0.13
#2 PAOK 0.13
#3 PS Kalamata 0.11
#4 AEK Athens 0.11
#5 AE Kifisia 0.10
#6 Panathinaikos 0.09
#7 OFI Crete 0.08
#8 NPS Volos 0.08
#9 Olympiacos FC 0.08
#10 Asteras Aktor 0.08
#11 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
#12 Atromitos Athens 0.07
#13 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#14 APO Levadiakos 0.07
League avg
0.09
Total
6.10 npxG from 81 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.4 shots per match
#5/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AE Kifisia 8.3
#2 Panathinaikos 8.7
#3 Olympiacos FC 9.0
#4 AEK Athens 10.6
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 11.4
#6 NPS Volos 12.4
#7 Asteras Aktor 12.6
#8 APO Levadiakos 13.0
#9 PAOK 13.2
#10 Atromitos Athens 13.6
#11 OFI Crete 14.0
#12 Panetolikos 14.5
#13 PS Kalamata 14.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 17.6
League avg
12.5
Total
57 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.15 npxGA per shot
#14/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.06
#2 OFI Crete 0.07
#3 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#4 PAOK 0.07
#5 AE Kifisia 0.09
#6 Panetolikos 0.09
#7 NPS Volos 0.09
#8 Atromitos Athens 0.09
#9 AEK Athens 0.09
#10 PS Kalamata 0.10
#11 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#12 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#13 Panathinaikos 0.13
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.15
League avg
0.09
Total
8.31 npxGA from 57 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 50 of 81 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 36 of 57 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

54% open play · 46% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 2.8 of 6.1 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 1.1 of 8.3 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Aris Thessaloniki home and away xG

Aris Thessaloniki per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 1.65 1.44
xGA / match 0.86 2.44
xGD / match +0.79 -1.00
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.02 0.97

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Aris Thessaloniki match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.52
xGA / match
1.81
xGD / match
-0.28
Points
7 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Iraklis 1908 H xG 1.54 xGA 0.37 xGD +1.17
  2. Sun 13/09 PAOK A xG 1.24 xGA 2.39 P xGD -1.15
  3. Sat 05/09 AEK Athens A Weakest underlying xG 0.40 xGA 3.53 xGD -3.13
  4. Sun 30/08 OFI Crete H xG 1.75 P xGA 1.34 xGD +0.41
  5. Sat 22/08 PS Kalamata A Best underlying xG 2.69 P xGA 1.41 xGD +1.28

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.53. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Aris Thessaloniki in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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