Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:00
27d 10h to kick-offAPO Levadiakos – Aris Thessaloniki
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- APO Levadiakos
- 34%
- Draw
- 32%
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 34%
| APO Levadiakos | Draw | Aris Thessaloniki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.96 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
- Total goals
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Aris Thessaloniki to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- Aris Thessaloniki attack v APO Levadiakos defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 9th
- Aris Thessaloniki defence v APO Levadiakos attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.26
- APO Levadiakos v Aris Thessaloniki
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | APO Levadiakos | Aris Thessaloniki |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.62 · 13th | (better) 1.52 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.41 · 8th | 1.81 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 13th | (better) -0.28 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 13th | (better) 1.39 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.77 | (better) -0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Thessaloniki clean sheet
- 26%
- Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APO Levadiakos sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · APO Levadiakos
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Aris Thessaloniki
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.