Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeAE Kifisia 0:0 APO Levadiakos
AE Kifisia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was APO Levadiakos's attack: 0.53 xG against 0.88 projected (−0.35).
The model against the result
- AE Kifisia
- 50%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- APO Levadiakos
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
APO Levadiakos produced 0.35 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 5
- On target
- 4
- 1
- Inside the box
- 6
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.83
- 0.49
- Set-piece xG
- 0.54
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.38 for AE Kifisia and 0.53 for APO Levadiakos.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
15 shots · 1.88 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AE Kifisia
- APO Levadiakos
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.25 xG created 1.19 xGA
- W 1.75 created, 0.76 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- L 1.29 created, 1.61 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 0.44 created, 1.69 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 1.83 created, 1.97 conceded against AE Larisa
- D 1.11 created, 0.42 conceded against AEK Athens
- L 1.10 created, 0.67 conceded against OFI Crete
1.29 xG created 1.24 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia to win | 2.35 | +17.1% | Lost |
| APO Levadiakos at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +7.2% | Won |
| APO Levadiakos not to score | 2.75 | +6.8% | Won |
| AE Kifisia 2+ goals | 2.38 | +5.4% | Lost |
| AE Kifisia to score | 1.29 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia | 49.8% | 40.1% | +9.7 pp | 2.01 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 29.5% | +1.2 pp | 3.26 |
| APO Levadiakos | 19.5% | 30.4% | −10.9 pp | 5.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia to score | 79.5% | 73.1% | +6.4 pp | 1.26 |
| AE Kifisia not to score | 20.5% | 26.9% | −6.4 pp | 4.89 |
| APO Levadiakos to score | 61.2% | 66.3% | −5.1 pp | 1.63 |
| APO Levadiakos not to score | 38.8% | 33.7% | +5.1 pp | 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 50.0% | +0.5 pp | 1.98 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.5% | 50.0% | −0.5 pp | 2.02 |
| AE Kifisia 2+ goals | 44.4% | 39.2% | +5.1 pp | 2.25 |
| AE Kifisia at most 1 goal | 55.6% | 60.8% | −5.1 pp | 1.80 |
| APO Levadiakos 2+ goals | 21.4% | 31.3% | −9.9 pp | 4.68 |
| APO Levadiakos at most 1 goal | 78.6% | 68.7% | +9.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | 68.7% | +3.3 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 31.3% | −3.3 pp | 3.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 43.7% | −1.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 56.3% | +1.5 pp | 1.73 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- APO Levadiakos sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.